decision analysis

WordNet

1. the act of making up your mind about something; "the burden of decision was his"; "he drew his conclusions quickly" (同)determination, conclusion
2. a position or opinion or judgment reached after consideration; "a decision unfavorable to the opposition"; "his conclusion took the evidence into account"; "satisfied with the panels determination" (同)determination, conclusion
3. (boxing) a victory won on points when no knockout has occurred; "had little trouble in taking a unanimous decision over his opponent"
4. the outcome of a game or contest; "the team dropped three decisions in a row"
5. an investigation of the component parts of a whole and their relations in making up the whole
6. the abstract separation of a whole into its constituent parts in order to study the parts and their relations (同)analytic thinking
7. a branch of mathematics involving calculus and the theory of limits; sequences and series and integration and differentiation
8. a form of literary criticism in which the structure of a piece of writing is analyzed
9. the use of closed-class words instead of inflections: e.g., `the father of the bride instead of `the brides father

PrepTutorEJDIC

1. 〈C〉(問題・疑義などの)『決定』,解決;結論《+『of』+『名』》 / 〈U〉『決心』,決断 / 〈C〉(法廷での)『判決』;判定 / 〈U〉決断力
2. (内容・状況などの)『分析』,分解;(詳細な)検討 / (化学・物理で)分析;《米》(心理学で)[精神]分析;(数学で)解析

Wikipedia preview

出典(authority):フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』「2016/06/05 14:05:56」(JST)

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Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision, for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected utility action axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision, and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker and other stakeholders.

History and methodology

Graphical representation of decision analysis problems commonly use influence diagrams and decision trees. Both of these tools represent the alternatives available to the decision maker, the uncertainty they face, and evaluation measures representing how well they achieve their objectives in the final outcome. Uncertainties are represented through probabilities. The decision maker's attitude to risk is represented by utility functions and their attitude to trade-offs between conflicting objectives can be made using multi-attribute value functions or multi-attribute utility functions (if there is risk involved). In some cases, utility functions can be replaced by the probability of achieving uncertain aspiration levels. Decision analysis advocates choosing that decision whose consequences have the maximum expected utility (or which maximize the probability of achieving the uncertain aspiration level). Such decision analytic methods are used in a wide variety of fields, including business (planning, marketing, and negotiation), environmental remediation, health care research and management, energy exploration, litigation and dispute resolution, etc.

Decision analysis is used by major corporations to make multibillion-dollar capital investments. In 2010, Chevron won the Decision Analysis Society Practice Award for its use of decision analysis in all major decisions. In a video detailing Chevron's use of decision analysis, Chevron Vice Chairman George Kirkland notes that "decision analysis is a part of how Chevron does business for a simple, but powerful, reason: it works."

Controversy

Decision Analysis is designed to be a prescriptive approach to decision making, especially decision-making under uncertainties. The distinction between prescriptive and descriptive perspectives of decision-making is important, because the first answers the question "how should I make my decisions" (even though people don't act this way necessarily), while the second targets to explain how people make decisions (even though in many cases the way they make the decisions are not perfect).

Decision researchers studying how individuals research decisions have found that decision analysis is rarely used. High-stakes decisions, made under time pressure, are not well described by decision analysis. Some decision analysts, in turn, argue that their approach is prescriptive, providing a prescription of what actions to take based on sound logic, rather than a descriptive approach, describing the flaws in the way people do make decisions. Critics cite the phenomenon of paralysis by analysis as one possible consequence of over-reliance on decision analysis in organizations.

Studies have demonstrated the utility of decision analysis in creating decision-making algorithms that are superior to "unaided intuition".

The term "decision analytic" has often been reserved for decisions that do not appear to lend themselves to mathematical optimization methods. Methods like applied information economics, however, attempt to apply more rigorous quantitative methods even to these types of decisions.

See also

• Choice
• Decision analysis cycle
• Decision making software
• Decision model
• Decision theory
• Decision quality
• Stochastic dominance
• Decision tree
• Decision support
• Influence diagram
• Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
• Micromort
• Optimal decision
• Management science
• Analysis paralysis
• Decision Engineering

References

Further reading

• Alemi F, Gustafson D (2006). Decision Analysis for Healthcare Managers. Health Administration Press. ISBN 978-1-56793-256-0. 
• Clemen, Robert & T. Reilly (2004). Making Hard Decisions (2nd ed.). Belmont CA: Southwestern College Pub. ISBN 978-0-495-01508-6. 
• Fineberg, Harvey V.; Weinstein, Milton C. (1980). Clinical decision analysis. Philadelphia: Saunders. ISBN 0-7216-9166-8. 
• Goodwin, P. & G. Wright (2004). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (3rd ed.). Chichester: Wiley. ISBN 0-470-86108-8. 
• Hammond, J.S.; Keeney, R.L. & Raiffa, H. (1999). Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Harvard Business School Press. ISBN 0-585-31075-0. 
• Holtzman, Samuel (1989). Intelligent Decision Systems. Addison-Wesley. ISBN 0-201-11602-2. 
• Howard, R.A.; J.E. Matheson, eds. (1984). Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis. Menlo Park CA: Strategic Decisions Group. ISBN 0-9623074-0-8. 
• Keeney, R.L. (1992). Value-focused thinking—A Path to Creative Decisionmaking. Harvard University Press. ISBN 0-674-93197-1. 
• Leach, Patrick (2006). Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions. Probabilistic. ISBN 0-9647938-5-7. 
• Matheson, David & Matheson, Jim (1998). The Smart Organization: Creating Value through Strategic R&D. Harvard Business School Press. ISBN 0-87584-765-X. 
• Morgan, Granger & Henrion, Max (1992). Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-42744-4. 
• Pratt, John; H. Raiffa & R. Schlaifer (1995). Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory. MIT Press. ISBN 978-0-262-16144-2. 
• Raiffa, Howard (1997). Decision Analysis: Introductory Readings on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill. ISBN 0-07-052579-X. 
• Shi H, Lyons-Weiler J (2007). "Clinical decision modeling system". BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 7: 23. doi:10.1186/1472-6947-7-23. PMC 2131745. PMID 17697328. 
• Skinner, David (1999). Introduction to Decision Analysis (2nd ed.). Probabilistic. ISBN 0-9647938-3-0. 
• Smith, J.Q. (1988). Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. ISBN 0-412-27520-1. 
• Virine, L. & Trumper M. (2007). Project Decisions: The Art and Science. Vienna, VA: Management Concepts. ISBN 978-1-56726-217-9. 
• Winkler, Robert L (2003). Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision (2nd ed.). Probabilistic. ISBN 0-9647938-4-9. 

External links

• Society of Decision Professionals, the professional society supporting decision professionals as the advisors of choice when facing important, complex decisions.
• Decision Analysis, a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
• Decision Analysis Society, a subdivision of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences specializing in Decision Analysis
• Decision Analysis in Health Care Online course from George Mason University providing free lectures and tools for decision analysis modeling in health care settings.
• Decision Analysis Affinity Group, DAAG, has merged with and become the annual conference of the Society of Decision Professionals. Formed as an informal group of DA practitioners, DAAG was started in 1995 by Tom Spradlin, John Palmer, and David Skinner.
• Decision Analysis Glossary

UpToDate Contents

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• 1. 決定分析 decision analysis
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English Journal

• Coordination within medical neighborhoods: Insights from the early experiences of Colorado patient-centered medical homes.

• Alidina S1, Rosenthal M, Schneider E, Singer S.
• Health care management review.Health Care Manage Rev.2016 Aug 6. [Epub ahead of print]
• BACKGROUND: The term "medical neighborhood" refers to relationships that patient-centered medical homes (PCMHs) seek to establish with other providers to facilitate coordinated patient care. Yet, how PCMHs can accomplish this coordination is not well understood.PURPOSE: Drawing upon organizational t
• PMID 26259020

• Development and validation of a modified QuEChERS protocol coupled to LC-MS/MS for simultaneous determination of multi-class antibiotic residues in honey.

• Shendy AH1, Al-Ghobashy MA2, Gad Alla SA1, Lotfy HM3.
• Food chemistry.Food Chem.2016 Jan 1;190:982-9. doi: 10.1016/j.foodchem.2015.06.048. Epub 2015 Jun 18.
• LC-MS/MS assay was developed and validated according to EU guidelines for determination of nitrofuran metabolites and nitroimidazole residues in honey. Crude samples were acid-treated to liberate matrix-bound residues and a modified QuEChERS protocol was employed. Nitrofurantoin, furazolidone, fural
• PMID 26213065

Japanese Journal

• 生徒に影響を与える英語教師の授業スタイル

• 望月 正道
• 麗澤レヴュー = Reitaku Review 21, 57-75, 2015-06-30
• … Teachers have beliefs about teaching that affect their decision-making and behavior. … Eighty-eight students answered a twenty-item questionnaire on how these teachers taught English and the responses were put through a factor analysis. …
• NAID 120005622412

• 米国最高裁判決に基づく特許保護適格性の判断手法 : Alice最高裁判決後の事例とUSPTOガイドラインの分析

• 河野 英仁
• A.I.P.P.I. = 一般社団法人日本国際知的財産保護協会月報 : Journal of the Japanese Group of the International Association for the Protection of Intellectual Property 60(5), 409-419, 2015-05
• NAID 40020498123

Related Links

• Decision Analysis: INFORMS

Outstanding Case Teacher Casey Lichtendahl, Decision Analysis associate editor, was recognized as Outstanding Case Teacher in an international competition for 2015! 'Casey challenges students and leads them to new frontiers ...

• Decision Analysis - DA Definition | Investopedia

A systematic, quantitative and visual approach to addressing and evaluating important choices confronted by businesses. Decision analysis utilizes a variety of tools to evaluate all relevant information to aid in the decision making ...

Related Pictures

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★リンクテーブル★

リンク元	「決定分析」「decision aid」
関連記事	「decision」「analysis」

「決定分析」

　　[★]

英

decision analysis

関

意志決定ガイド

「decision aid」

　　[★]

• 意志決定ガイド

関

decision analysis

「decision」

　　[★]

• n.

• 決定、確定、判定、判断、決断

関

assessment、decide、decisional、definition、definitive、determination、determine、judge、judgement、judgment、read、reason

　 　 　 　 　

「analysis」

　　[★]

• n.

• 解析、分析、解析法、分析法

関

anal、analyse、analyses、analytical、analyze、assay、dissect、-metry、solve