expose to a chance of loss or damage; "We risked losing a lot of money in this venture"; "Why risk your life?"; "She laid her job on the line when she told the boss that he was wrong" (同)put on the line, lay on the line
a venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury; "he saw the rewards but not the risks of crime"; "there was a danger he would do the wrong thing" (同)peril, danger
the probability of being exposed to an infectious agent (同)risk of exposure
the probability of becoming infected given that exposure to an infectious agent has occurred (同)risk of infection
be a contributing factor; "make things factor into a companys profitability"
any of the numbers (or symbols) that form a product when multiplied together
an independent variable in statistics
anything that contributes causally to a result; "a number of factors determined the outcome"
consider as relevant when making a decision; "You must factor in the recent developments" (同)factor in, factor out
resolve into factors; "a quantum computer can factor the number 15" (同)factor in, factor out
an event known to have happened or something known to have existed; "your fears have no basis in fact"; "how much of the story is fact and how much fiction is hard to tell"
a concept whose truth can be proved; "scientific hypotheses are not facts"
a piece of information about circumstances that exist or events that have occurred; "first you must collect all the facts of the case"
a statement or assertion of verified information about something that is the case or has happened; "he supported his argument with an impressive array of facts"
newly come into prominence; "a rising young politician"
advancing or becoming higher or greater in degree or value or status; "a rising trend"; "a rising market"
This article is about the concept in epidemiology. For other uses, see Risk factor (disambiguation).
In epidemiology, a risk factor is a variable associated with an increased risk of disease or infection.[1]:38 When evidence is found the term determinant is used as a variable associated with either increased or decreased risk.
Contents
1Correlation vs causation
2Terms of description
3Example
4General determinants
5Risk marker
6History
7See also
8References
9Further reading
Correlation vs causation
Risk factors or determinants are correlational and not necessarily causal, because correlation does not prove causation. For example, being young cannot be said to cause measles, but young people have a higher rate of measles because they are less likely to have developed immunity during a previous epidemic. Statistical methods are frequently used to assess the strength of an association and to provide causal evidence (for example in the study of the link between smoking and lung cancer). Statistical analysis along with the biological sciences can establish that risk factors are causal. Some prefer the term risk factor to mean causal determinants of increased rates of disease, and for unproven links to be called possible risks, associations, etc.
When done thoughtfully and based on research, identification of risk factors can be a strategy for medical screening.[2]
Terms of description
Mainly taken from risk factors for breast cancer, risk factors can be described in terms of, for example:
Relative risk, such as "A woman is more than 100 times more likely to develop breast cancer in her 60s than in her 20s.[3]"
Fraction of incidences occurring in the group having the property of or being exposed to the risk factor, such as "99% of breast cancer cases are diagnosed in women[4]"
Increase in incidence in the exposed group, such as "each daily alcoholic beverage increases the incidence of breast cancer by 11 cases per 1000 women[5]"
Hazard ratio, such as "an increase in both total and invasive breast cancers in women randomized to receive estrogen and progestin for an average of 5 years, with a hazard ratio of 1.24 compared to controls"[6]
Example
The following example of a risk factor is described in terms of the relative risk it confers, which is evaluated by comparing the risk of those exposed to the potential risk factor to those not exposed. Let's say that at a wedding, 74 people ate the chicken and 22 of them were ill, while of the 35 people who had the fish or vegetarian meal only 2 were ill. Did the chicken make the people ill?
So the chicken eaters' risk = 22/74 = 0.297
And non-chicken eaters' risk = 2/35 = 0.057.
Those who ate the chicken had a risk over five times as high as those who did not, that is, a relative risk of more than five. This suggests that eating chicken was the cause of the illness, but this is not proof.
General determinants
The probability of an outcome usually depends on an interplay between multiple associated variables. When performing epidemiological studies to evaluate one or more determinants for a specific outcome, the other determinants may act as confounding factors, and need to be controlled for, e.g. by stratification. The potentially confounding determinants varies with what outcome is studied, but the following general confounders are common to most epidemiological associations, and are the determinants most commonly controlled for in epidemiological studies:
Age (0 to 1.5 years for infants, 1.5 to 6 years for young children, etc.)
Sex or gender (Male or female)[7]:20
Ethnicity (Based on race)[7]:21
Other less commonly adjusted for possible confounders include:
Social status/income [1]:39
Geographic location
Genetic predisposition
Gender identity
Occupation
Sexual orientation
Level of chronic stress
Diet
Level of physical exercise
Alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking
Other social determinants of health
Risk marker
A risk marker is a variable that is quantitatively associated with a disease or other outcome, but direct alteration of the risk marker does not necessarily alter the risk of the outcome. For example, driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) history is a risk marker for pilots as epidemiologic studies indicate that pilots with a DWI history are significantly more likely than their counterparts without a DWI history to be involved in aviation crashes.[8]
History
The term "risk factor" was first coined by former Framingham Heart Study Director, Dr. William B. Kannel in a 1961 article in Annals of Internal Medicine.[9]
See also
Protective factor
References
^ abParritz, Robin Hornik. Disorders of childhood : development and psychopathology. Troy, Michael F. (Michael Francis), (Third ed.). Boston, MA. ISBN 9781337098113. OCLC 960031712.
^Wald, N J; Hackshaw, A K; Frost, C D (1999). "When can a risk factor be used as a worthwhile screening test?". BMJ. 319 (7224): 1562–1565. doi:10.1136/bmj.319.7224.1562. ISSN 0959-8138. PMC 1117271.
^Margolese, Richard G, Bernard Fisher, Gabriel N Hortobagyi, and William D Bloomer (2000). "118". In Bast RC, Kufe DW, Pollock RE, et al. (eds.). Cancer Medicine (e.5 ed.). Hamilton, Ontario: B.C. Decker. ISBN 1-55009-113-1. Retrieved 27 January 2011.CS1 maint: Multiple names: authors list (link)
^Giordano SH, Cohen DS, Buzdar AU, Perkins G, Hortobagyi GN (July 2004). "Breast carcinoma in men: a population-based study". Cancer. 101 (1): 51–7. doi:10.1002/cncr.20312. PMID 15221988.
^Allen NE, Beral V, Casabonne D, et al. (March 2009). "Moderate alcohol intake and cancer incidence in women". Journal of the National Cancer Institute. 101 (5): 296–305. doi:10.1093/jnci/djn514. PMID 19244173.
^Heiss, G.; Wallace, R.; Anderson, G. L.; Aragaki, A.; Beresford, S. A. A.; Brzyski, R.; Chlebowski, R. T.; Gass, M.; Lacroix, A. (2008). "Health Risks and Benefits 3 Years After Stopping Randomized Treatment with Estrogen and Progestin". JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association. 299 (9): 1036–45. doi:10.1001/jama.299.9.1036. PMID 18319414.
^ abMash, Eric J. (2019). Abnormal child psychology. Wolfe, David A. (David Allen), 1951- (Seventh ed.). Boston, MA. ISBN 9781337624268. OCLC 1022139949.
^Li G, Baker SP, Qiang Y, Grabowski JG, McCarthy ML.Driving-while-intoxicated history as a risk marker for general aviation pilots. Accid Anal Prev. 2005;37(1):179-84./McFadden KL. Driving while intoxicated (DWI) convictions and job-related flying performance – a study of commercial air safety. J Oper Res Soc. 1998;49:28–32
^Husten, Larry (23 August 2011). "William Kannel, Former Director of the Framingham Heart Study, Dead at 87". Forbes.
Further reading
Case, S.P. and Haines, K.R. (2009) Understanding Youth Offending: Risk Factor Research, Policy and Practice. Cullompton: Willan. http://www.willanpublishing.co.uk/cgi-bin/indexer?product=9781843923411
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