WordNet

a prediction of the course of a disease (同)prospect, medical prognosis
a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop (同)forecast

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(病気の)予後(経過および結果の見通し) / (一般に)予知,予測
(…の)『結果』,成り行き(result)《+『of』+『名』》
…‘の'『見通し』,見込み《+『for』+『名』》 / (…についての)見解,見地《+『on』+『名』》 / (…の)『展望』,ながめ,景色《+『on』(『over』)+『名』》
(病気の)予後の / きざしを示す,前兆の / (…の)きざし,前兆《+『of』+『名』》

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出典(authority):フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』「2016/06/13 02:59:16」(JST)

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Prognosis (Greek πρόγνωσις "fore-knowing, foreseeing") is a medical term for predicting the likely outcome of one's current standing. When applied to large statistical populations, prognostic estimates can be very accurate: for example the statement "45% of patients with severe septic shock will die within 28 days" can be made with some confidence, because previous research found that this proportion of patients died. However, it is much harder to translate this into a prognosis for an individual patient: additional information is needed to determine whether a patient belongs to the 45% who will die, or to the 55% who survive.^[1]

A complete prognosis includes the expected duration, the function, and a description of the course of the disease, such as progressive decline, intermittent crisis, or sudden, unpredictable crisis.

Methodology

Disease and prognostic indicators

Prognostic scoring is also used for cancer outcome predictions. A Manchester score is an indicator of prognosis for small-cell lung cancer. For Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, physicians have developed the International Prognostic Index to predict patient outcome.

Other medical areas where prognostic indicators are used is in Drug-Induced Liver Injury (DILI) (Hy's law) and use of an exercise stress test as a prognostic indicator after myocardial infarction,also use to indicator multiple myeloma survive rate.^[2]

End of life

Medical studies have demonstrated that most doctors are overly optimistic when giving prognostic information, that is, they tend to overstate how long a patient might live. For patients who are critically ill, particularly those in an intensive care unit, there are numerical prognostic scoring systems that are more accurate. The most famous of these is the APACHE II scale. However, this scale is most accurate when applied in the seven days prior to a patient's predicted death.

Knowing the prognosis helps determine whether it makes more sense to attempt certain treatments or to withhold them, and thus plays an important role in end-of-life decisions.

Estimator

Estimators that are commonly used to describe prognoses include:

Progression-free survival - the length of time during and after medication or treatment during which the disease being treated (usually cancer) does not get worse.
Survival rate - indicating the percentage of people in a study or treatment group who are alive for a given period of time after diagnosis.
Survival time - the remaining duration of life. If not otherwise specified, it generally starts from the time of diagnosis.

History

One of the earliest written works of medicine is the Book of Prognostics of Hippocrates, written around 400 BC. This work opens with the following statement: "It appears to me a most excellent thing for the physician to cultivate Prognosis; for by foreseeing and foretelling, in the presence of the sick, the present, the past, and the future, and explaining the omissions which patients have been guilty of, he will be the more readily believed to be acquainted with the circumstances of the sick; so that men will have confidence to intrust themselves to such a physician."^[3]

For 19th century physicians, particularly those following the French school of medicine, the main aim of medicine was not to cure disease, but rather to give a medical diagnosis and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Only several decades later did the focus of efforts in Western medicine shift to curing disease.

References

^ Gould, SJ, The Median Isn't the Message, retrieved 1 November 2014
^ "Multiple Myeloma Prognosis". Multiple Myeloma Prognosis.
^ http://classics.mit.edu/Hippocrates/prognost.1.1.html

External links

Computer models at prognosis.org

UpToDate Contents

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1. 緩和ケアにおける予後の告知 communication of prognosis in palliative care
2. 末期進行癌における生存期間の推定 survival estimates in advanced terminal cancer
3. 心不全の予後 prognosis of heart failure
4. 心筋梗塞後の予後 prognosis after myocardial infarction
5. 周産期心筋症：治療および予後 peripartum cardiomyopathy treatment and prognosis

English Journal

Time to definitive diagnosis of breast cancer in Latina and non-Hispanic white women: the six cities study.

Ramirez AG, Pérez-Stable EJ, Talavera GA, Penedo FJ, Carrillo JE, Fernandez ME, Muñoz E, Long Parma D, Holden AE, San Miguel de Majors S, Nápoles A, Castañeda SF, Gallion KJ.SourceInstitute for Health Promotion Research, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX USA ; The National Latino Cancer Research Network, Institute for Health Promotion Research, Cancer Therapy & Research Center, The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, 7411 John Smith Drive, Suite 1000, San Antonio, TX 78230 USA.
SpringerPlus.Springerplus.2013 Dec;2(1):84. Epub 2013 Mar 5.
Time delay after an abnormal screening mammogram may have a critical impact on tumor size, stage at diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and survival of subsequent breast cancer. This study was undertaken to evaluate disparities between Latina and non-Hispanic white (NHW) women in time to definitive dia
PMID 23519779

Neuroanatomical pattern classification in a population-based sample of first-episode schizophrenia.

Zanetti MV, Schaufelberger MS, Doshi J, Ou Y, Ferreira LK, Menezes PR, Scazufca M, Davatzikos C, Busatto GF.SourceLaboratory of Psychiatric Neuroimaging (LIM-21), Department and Institute of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Centro de Medicina Nuclear, 3o andar, LIM-21, Rua Dr. Ovídio Pires de Campos, s/n; Postal code 05403-010, São Paulo, SP, Brazil. Electronic address: marcus_zanetti@yahoo.com.br.
Progress in neuro-psychopharmacology & biological psychiatry.Prog Neuropsychopharmacol Biol Psychiatry.2013 Jun 3;43:116-25. doi: 10.1016/j.pnpbp.2012.12.005. Epub 2012 Dec 20.
Recent neuroanatomical pattern classification studies have attempted to individually classify cases with psychotic disorders using morphometric MRI data in an automated fashion. However, this approach has not been tested in population-based samples, in which variable patterns of comorbidity and dise
PMID 23261522

Apoptotic effects of the tyrosine kinase inhibitor, masitinib mesylate, on canine osteosarcoma cells.

Fahey CE, Milner RJ, Kow K, Bacon NJ, Salute ME.SourceDepartment of Small Animal Clinical Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Anti-cancer drugs.Anticancer Drugs.2013 Jun;24(5):519-26. doi: 10.1097/CAD.0b013e32836002ba.
Osteosarcoma (OSA) is the most common primary bone tumor in dogs and the guarded prognosis highlights the necessity to find new treatments. Masitinib mesylate is a highly selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor that predominantly targets c-Kit and PDGFR-α/β. This study evaluated the in-vitro activity
PMID 23466652

Japanese Journal

Cardiovascular Outcome and Mortality in Patients Undergoing Endovascular Treatment for Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease : Short-Term Results of the Toma-Code Registry

Circulation journal : official journal of the Japanese Circulation Society 82(7), 1917-1925, 2018-07
NAID 40021571734

Routine Indwelling Urethral Catheterization in Acute Heart Failure Patients Is Associated With Increased Urinary Tract Complications Without Improved Heart Failure Outcomes

Circulation journal : official journal of the Japanese Circulation Society 82(6), 1632-1639, 2018-06
NAID 40021555224