推測する

関: conjecture、guess、infer、speculation、speculative、surmise

WordNet

talk over conjecturally, or review in an idle or casual way and with an element of doubt or without sufficient reason to reach a conclusion; "We were speculating whether the President had to resign after the scandal"
invest at a risk; "I bought this house not because I want to live in it but to sell it later at a good price, so I am speculating" (同)job
to believe especially on uncertain or tentative grounds; "Scientists supposed that large dinosaurs lived in swamps" (同)theorize, theorise, conjecture, hypothesize, hypothesise, hypothecate, suppose
put forward, of a guess, in spite of possible refutation; "I am guessing that the price of real estate will rise again"; "I cannot pretend to say that you are wrong" (同)venture, pretend, hazard
a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence (同)conjecture, supposition, surmise, surmisal, speculation, hypothesis
an estimate based on little or no information (同)guesswork, guessing, shot, dead_reckoning
guess correctly; solve by guessing; "He guessed the right number of beans in the jar and won the prize" (同)infer
an investment that is very risky but could yield great profits; "he knew the stock was a speculation when he bought it" (同)venture
a hypothesis that has been formed by speculating or conjecturing (usually with little hard evidence); "speculations about the outcome of the election"; "he dismissed it as mere conjecture" (同)conjecture
reasoning that involves the formation of conclusions from incomplete evidence
infer from incomplete evidence

PrepTutorEJDIC

(…について)『推測する』,思い巡らす《+『about』(『on, upon』)+『名』(do『ing』)》 / (株・土地などに)『投機する』《+『in』(『on』)+『名』(do『ing』)》 / 《『speculate』+『that節』》…と推測する
(十分な根拠なしに)…‘を'『推測する』,推量する / (正確な推測で)…‘を'『言い当てる』,判断する / 《『guess』+『that節』》《米》…‘と'『思う』(think, suppose),信じる(believe) / (…を)『推測する』《+『at』(『about』)+『名』》 / (…についての)『推測』,推量《『at』(『about, as to』)+『名』(『wh-節』)》
(…に関する)『推測』,考察《+『about』(『on, upon』)+『名』》 / (…への)投機《+『in』(『on』)+『名』》
〈U〉推測すること,憶測 / 〈C〉(…についての)推論,推量した意見《+『on』+『名』》;(…という)推論《+『that節』》 / (…について)推測する,推量する《+『about』+『名』(『wh-節』)》 / …'を'推測する,推量する
…‘を'『推測する』,推量する / 推測する,推量する / 『推測』,推量
(人・心などが)推測にふける,思索的な / 《名詞の前にのみ用いて》(考え・結論などが)理論にもとづく,観念的な / 投機の,思わく買いの

Wikipedia preview

出典(authority):フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』「2015/08/22 15:05:17」(JST)

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Speculation is the practice of engaging in risky financial transactions in an attempt to profit from fluctuations in the market value of a tradable good such as a financial instrument, rather than attempting to profit from the underlying financial attributes embodied in the instrument such as capital gains, interest, or dividends. Many speculators pay little attention to the fundamental value of a security and instead focus purely on price movements. Speculation can in principle involve any tradable good or financial instrument. Speculators are particularly common in the markets for stocks, bonds, commodity futures, currencies, fine art, collectibles, real estate, and derivatives.

Speculators play one of four primary roles in financial markets, along with hedgers who engage in transactions to offset some other pre existing risk, arbitrageurs who seek to profit from situations where fungible instruments trade at different prices in different market segments, and investors who seek profit through long-term ownership of an instrument's underlying attributes.

1 History
2 Speculation and investment
3 The economic benefits of speculation
- 3.1 Sustainable consumption level
- 3.2 Market liquidity and efficiency
- 3.3 Bearing risks
- 3.4 Finding environmental and other risks
- 3.5 Shorting
4 The economic disadvantages of speculation
- 4.1 Winner's curse
- 4.2 Economic bubbles
- 4.3 Volatility
5 Government responses and regulation
- 5.1 Food security
- 5.2 Regulations
- 5.3 Proposals
6 Books
7 See also
8 References
9 External links

History

With the appearance of the stock ticker machine in 1867, which removed the need for traders to be physically present on the floor of a stock exchange, stock speculation underwent a dramatic expansion through the end of the 1920s. The number of shareholders increased, perhaps, from 4.4 million in 1900 to 26 million in 1932.^[1]

Speculation and investment

The view of what distinguishes investment from speculation and speculation from excessive speculation varies widely among pundits, legislators and academics. Some sources note that speculation is simply a higher risk form of investment. Others define speculation more narrowly as positions not characterized as hedging.^[2] The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission defines a speculator as "a trader who does not hedge, but who trades with the objective of achieving profits through the successful anticipation of price movements."^[3] The agency emphasizes that speculators serve important market functions, but defines excessive speculation as harmful to the proper functioning of futures markets.^[4]

According to Ben Graham in The Intelligent Investor, the prototypical defensive investor is "...one interested chiefly in safety plus freedom from bother." He admits, however, that "...some speculation is necessary and unavoidable, for in many common-stock situations, there are substantial possibilities of both profit and loss, and the risks therein must be assumed by someone." Thus, many long-term investors, even those who buy and hold for decades, may be classified as speculators, excepting only the rare few who are primarily motivated by income or safety of principal and not eventually selling at a profit.^[5]

The economic benefits of speculation

Sustainable consumption level

Speculation usually involves more risks than investment.

The speculator Victor Niederhoffer, in "The Speculator as Hero"^[6] describes the benefits of speculation:

Let's consider some of the principles that explain the causes of shortages and surpluses and the role of speculators. When a harvest is too small to satisfy consumption at its normal rate, speculators come in, hoping to profit from the scarcity by buying. Their purchases raise the price, thereby checking consumption so that the smaller supply will last longer. Producers encouraged by the high price further lessen the shortage by growing or importing to reduce the shortage. On the other side, when the price is higher than the speculators think the facts warrant, they sell. This reduces prices, encouraging consumption and exports and helping to reduce the surplus.

Another service provided by speculators to a market is that by risking their own capital in the hope of profit, they add liquidity to the market and make it easier or even possible for others to offset risk, including those who may be classified as hedgers and arbitrageurs.

Market liquidity and efficiency

If any particular market—for example, pork bellies—had no speculators, then only producers (the hog farmers) and consumers (butchers, etc.) would participate in that market. With fewer players in the market, there would be a larger spread between the current bid and ask price of pork bellies. Any new entrant in the market who wanted to trade pork bellies would be forced to accept an illiquid market, may trade at market prices with large bid-ask spreads, or even face difficulty finding a co-party to buy or sell to.

A commodity speculator may profit the difference in the spread and, in competition with other speculators, reduce the spread. Some schools of thought argue that speculators increase the liquidity in a market, and therefore promote an efficient market.^[7] As more and more speculators participate in a market, underlying real demand and supply can become diminishingly small compared to trading volume, and prices may become distorted.^[7] Without speculators, it is difficult to create an efficient market. Speculators are there to take information, and speculate on how it affects prices, producers and consumers, who may want to hedge their risks, need counter-parties, if they could find each other without markets it certainly would happen as it would be cheaper. The benefit of price discovery provided as a byproduct by speculators is of great benefit to the economy as a whole as well.

Bearing risks

Speculators also perform a very important risk bearing role that is beneficial to society. For example, a farmer might be considering planting corn on some unused farmland. Alas, he might not want to do so because he is concerned that the price might fall too far by harvest time. By selling his crop in advance at a fixed price to a speculator, the farmer can hedge the price risk and is now willing to plant the corn. Thus, speculators can actually increase production through their willingness to take on risk.

Finding environmental and other risks

Hedge funds that do fundamental analysis "are far more likely than other investors to try to identify a firm’s off-balance-sheet exposures", including "environmental or social liabilities present in a market or company but not explicitly accounted for in traditional numeric valuation or mainstream investor analysis", and hence make the prices better reflect the true quality of operation of the firms.^[8]

Shorting

Shorting may act as a "canary in a coal mine" to stop unsustainable practices earlier and thus reduce damages and forming market bubbles.^[8]

The economic disadvantages of speculation

Winner's curse

Auctions are a method of squeezing out speculators from a transaction, but they may have their own perverse effects; see winner's curse. The winner's curse is however not very significant to markets with high liquidity for both buyers and sellers, as the auction for selling the product and the auction for buying the product occur simultaneously, and the two prices are separated only by a relatively small spread. This mechanism prevents the winner's curse phenomenon from causing mispricing to any degree greater than the spread.^{[citation needed]}

Economic bubbles

Speculation is often associated with economic bubbles. A bubble occurs when the price for an asset exceeds its intrinsic value by a significant margin,^[9] although not all bubbles occur because of speculation.^[10] Speculative bubbles are characterized by rapid market expansion driven by word-of-mouth feedback loops as initial rises in asset price attract new buyers and generate further inflation.^[11] The creation of the bubble is followed by a precipitous collapse fueled by the same phenomenon.^[9]^[12] Speculative bubbles are essentially social epidemics whose contagion is mediated by the structure of the market.^[12] Some economists link asset price movements within a bubble to fundamental economic factors such as cash flows and discount rates.^[13]

In 1936 John Maynard Keynes wrote: "Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the situation is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. (1936:159)"^[14] Mr Keynes himself enjoyed speculation to the fullest, running an early precursor of a hedge fund. As the Bursar of the Cambridge University King's College, he managed two investment funds, one of which, called Chest Fund, invested not only in the then 'emerging' market US stocks, but also periodically included commodity futures and foreign currencies, albeit to a smaller extent (see Chua and Woodward, 1983) . His fund achieved positive returns in almost every year, averaging 13% p.a., even during the Great Depression, thanks to very modern investment strategies, which included inter-market diversification (i.e., invested not only in stocks but also commodities and currencies) as well as shorting, i.e., selling borrowed stocks or futures to make money on falling prices, which Keynes advocated among the principles of successful investment in his 1933 report ("a balanced investment position [...] and if possible, opposed risks.") ^[15]

Volatility

According to Ziemba and Ziemba (2007), Keynes risk-taking reached 'cowboy' proportions, i.e. 80% of the maximum rationally justifiable levels (of the so-called Kelly criterion), with overall return volatility approximately three times higher than the stock market index benchmark. Such levels of volatility, responsible for his spectacular investment performance, would be achievable today only through the most aggressive instruments (such as 3:1 leveraged exchange-traded funds). He chose modern speculation techniques practiced today by hedge funds, which are quite different from the simple buy-and-hold long-term investing.^[16]

It is a controversial point whether the presence of speculators increases or decreases the short-term volatility in a market. Their provision of capital and information may help stabilize prices closer to their true values. On the other hand, crowd behavior and positive feedback loops in market participants may also increase volatility at times.

Government responses and regulation

The economic disadvantages of speculators has resulted in a number of attempts over the years to introduce regulations and restrictions to try and limit or reduce the impact of speculators. Such financial regulation is often enacted in response to a crisis as was the case with the Bubble Act 1720 which was passed by the British government at the height of the South Sea Bubble to try stop speculation in such schemes. This act was left in place for over a hundred years and was repealed in 1825. Another example was the Glass–Steagall legislation passed in 1933 during the Great Depression in the United States, most of the Glass-Steagall provisions were repealed during the 1980s and 1990s. The Onion Futures Act bans the trading of futures contracts on onions in the United States, after speculators successfully cornered the market in the mid-1950s; it remains in effect as of 2013^[update].

Food security

Some nations have moved to limit foreign ownership of cropland in order to ensure that food is available for local consumption while others have sold food land and depend on the World Food Programme.^[17]

In 1935 the Indian government passed a law allowing the government to in part restrict and directly control food production (Defence of India Act, 1935). This included the ability to restrict or ban the trading in derivatives on those food commodities. Post independence, in the 1950s, India continued to struggle with feeding its population and the government increasingly restricting trading in food commodities. Just at the time the Forward Markets Commission was established, the government felt that derivative markets increased speculation which led to increased costs and price instabilities. And in 1953 finally prohibited options and futures trading altogether.^[18] These restrictions were not lifted until the 1980s.

Regulations

In the US following passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the U.S., Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed regulations aimed at limiting speculation in futures markets by instituting position limits. The CFTC offers three basic elements for their regulatory framework: "the size (or levels) of the limits themselves; the exemptions from the limits (for example, hedged positions) and; the policy on aggregating accounts for purposes of applying the limits."^[19] The proposed position limits apply to 28 physical commodities traded in various exchanges across the U.S.^[20]

Another part of the Dodd-Frank Act established the Volcker Rule which deals with speculative investments of banks that don't benefit their customers. The Volcker Rule passed on 21 January 2010 states that these investments played a key role in the financial crisis of 2007–2010.^[21]

Proposals

A number of proposals have been made in the past to try and limit speculation that were never enacted, these have included:

The Tobin tax is a tax intended to reduce short-term currency speculation, ostensibly to stabilize foreign exchange.

In May 2008 German leaders planned to propose a worldwide ban on oil trading by speculators, blaming the 2008 oil price rises on manipulation by hedge funds.^[22]

On 3 December 2009 U.S. Congressman Peter DeFazio, who blamed "reckless speculation" for the 2008 financial crisis, proposed the introduction of a financial transaction tax, which would specifically target speculators by taxing financial market securities transactions.

Books

Covel, Michael. The Complete Turtle Trader. HarperCollins, 2007. ISBN 9780061241703
Douglas, Mark. The Disciplined Trader. New York Institute of Finance, 1990. ISBN 0-13-215757-8
Gunther, Max The Zurich Axioms Souvenir Press (1st print 1985) ISBN 0-285-63095-4.
Fox, Justin. The Myth of the Rational Market. HarperCollings, 2009. ISBN 9780060598990
Lefèvre, Edwin. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2005 (1st print 1923) ISBN 0471678767
Neill, Humphrey B. The Art of Contrary Thinking Caxton Press 1954.
Niederhoffer, Victor Practical Speculation John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2005 ISBN 0-471-67774-4
Sobel, Robert The Money Manias: The Eras of Great Speculation in America, 1770-1970 Beard Books 1973 ISBN 1-58798-028-2
Patterson, Scott The Quants, How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed it Crown Business, 2010 ISBN 9780307453372
Schwartz, Martin "Buzzy". Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader HarperCollins, 2007 ISBN 9780061844638
Schwager, Jack D. Trading with the Market Wizards: The Complete Market Wizards Series John Wiley & Sons 2013 ISBN 9781118582978
Tharp, Van K. Definitive Guide to Position Sizing International Institute of Trading Mastery, 2008. ISBN 0935219099

References

Citations

^ Stäheli 2013, p. 4.
^ Szado, Edward (2011). "Defining Speculation: The First Step toward a Rational Dialogue". The Journal of Alternative Investments. CAIA Association.
^ "CFTC Glossary: A guide to the language of the futures industry". cftc.gov. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 28 August 2012.
^ "Staff Report on Commodity Swap Dealers & Index Traders with Commission Recommendations" (PDF). U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 2008. Retrieved 27 August 2012.
^ Graham, Benjamin (1973). The Intelligent Investor. HarperCollins Books. ISBN 0-06-055566-1.
^ Victor Niederhoffer, The Wall Street Journal, 10 February 1989 Daily Speculations
^ ^a ^b http://chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/understanding_derivatives/understanding_derivatives_chapter_1_derivatives_overview.pdf
^ ^a ^b Unlikely heroes - Can hedge funds save the world? One pundit thinks so, The Economist, 16 February 2010
^ ^a ^b Hollander, Barbara Gottfried (2011). Booms, Bubbles, & Busts (The Global Marketplace). Heinemann Library. pp. 40–41. ISBN 1432954776.
^ Lei, Noussair & Plott 2001, p. 831: "In a setting in which speculation is not possible, bubbles and crashes are observed. The results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation, but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality."
^ Rosser, J. Barkley (2000). From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities: Mathematics, Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, and Finance. p. 107.
^ ^a ^b Shiller, Robert J. (23 July 2012). "Bubbles without Markets". Retrieved 29 August 2012.
^ Siegel, Journal (2003). "What Is an Asset Price Bubble? An Operation Definition" (PDF). European Financial Management 9 (1): 11–24. doi:10.1111/1468-036x.00206.
^ Dr. Stephen Spratt of Intelligence Capital (September 2006). "A Sterling Solution". Stamp Out Poverty report. Stamp Out Poverty Campaign. p. 15. Retrieved 2 January 2010.
^ Chua, J. H. and R. S. Woodward (1983). "The Investment Wizardry of J.M. Keynes". Financial Analysts Journal 39 (3). pp. 35–37. JSTOR 4478643.
^ Ziemba, Rachel and William Ziemba (2007). "Good and Bad properties of the Kelly criterion" (PDF). John Wiley & Sons. pp. 29–31. Retrieved 26 January 2010.
^ Valente, Marcela. "Curbing foreign ownership of farmland." IPS, 22 May 2011.
^ Frida Youssef (October 2000). "Integrated report on Commodity Exchanges And Forward Market Commission (FMC)". FMC.
^ "Speculative Limits". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2012.
^ "CFTC Approves Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Regarding Regulations on Aggregation for Position Limits for Futures and Swaps". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2012.
^ David Cho and Binyamin Appelbaum (22 January 2010). "Obama's 'Volcker Rule' shifts power away from Geithner". The Washington Post. Retrieved 13 February 2010.
^ Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose (26 May 2008). "Germany in call for ban on oil speculation". The Daily Telegraph (The Daily Telegraph). Retrieved 28 May 2008.

Bibliography

Lei, Vivian; Noussair, Charles N.; Plott, Charles R. (2001). "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality". Econometrica 69 (4): 831–859. doi:10.1111/1468-0262.00222. JSTOR 2692246.
Stäheli, Urs (2013). Spectacular Speculation: Thrills, the Economy, and Popular Discourse. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. ISBN 978-0-804-77131-3.

External links

Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading
Understanding Derivatives: Markets and Infrastructure Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Financial Markets Group

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English Journal

Molecular dynamics simulation study on the interaction of collagen-like peptides with gelatinase-A (MMP-2).

Azhagiya Singam ER1, Rajapandian V, Subramanian V.Author information 1Chemical Laboratory, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Central Leather Research Institute, Adyar, Chennai, 600 020, Tamil Nadu, India.AbstractAlthough several models have been proposed for the interaction of collagen with gelatinase-A (matrix metalloproteinases-2 (MMP-2)), the extensive role of each domain of gelatinase A in hydrolyzing the collagens with and without interruptions is still elusive. Molecular docking, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation, normal mode analysis (NMA) and framework rigidity optimized dynamics algorithm (FRODAN) based analysis were carried out to understand the function of various domains of MMP-2 upon interaction with collagen like peptides. The results reveal that the collagen binding domain (CBD) binds to the C-terminal of collagen like peptide with interruption. CBD helps in unwinding the loosely packed interrupted region of triple helical structure to a greater extent. It can be possible to speculate that the role of hemopexin (HPX) domain is to prevent further unwinding of collagen like peptide by binding to the other end of the collagen like peptide. The catalytic (CAT) domain then reorients itself to interact with the part of the unwound region of collagen like peptide for further hydrolysis. In conclusion the CBD of MMP-2 recognizes the collagen and aids in unwinding the collagen like peptide with interruptions, and the HPX domain of MMP-2 binds to the other end of the collagen allowing CAT domain to access the cleavage site. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the structural basis of collagenolysis by MMP-2. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Biopolymers 101: 779-794, 2014.
Biopolymers.Biopolymers.2014 Jul;101(7):779-94. doi: 10.1002/bip.22457.
Although several models have been proposed for the interaction of collagen with gelatinase-A (matrix metalloproteinases-2 (MMP-2)), the extensive role of each domain of gelatinase A in hydrolyzing the collagens with and without interruptions is still elusive. Molecular docking, molecular dynamics (M
PMID 24374600

A missense polymorphism in ATF6 gene is associated with susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma probably by altering ATF6 level.

Wu X1, Xin Z, Zhang W, Zheng S, Wu J, Chen K, Wang H, Zhu X, Li Z, Duan Z, Li H, Liu Y.Author information 1National Laboratory of Medical Molecular Biology, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China; School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.AbstractAccumulated evidences indicate that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) are associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Activating transcription factor 6 (ATF6) is an important modulator of the unfolded protein response (UPR), which is regarded to be involved in carcinogenesis. So we speculate that SNPs in ATF6 may be associated with susceptibility to HCC. We carried out a two-stage association study in three independent case-control groups in a total of 1,082 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and 816 hepatitis B virus (HBV) related HCC patients in Han Chinese. Four SNPs which can represent all potential functional SNPs with MAF > 0.1 recorded in HapMap database in ATF6 gene were genotyped using TaqMan methods. Functional analyses were conducted to verify the biological significances of the associated SNP. We identified a missense SNP (rs2070150) was significantly associated with susceptibility to HCC (p = 0.008, 0.001 and 0.007 in Beijing_302, Beijing_You'an and Guangxi samples, respectively). This SNP was further validated in four independent groups of major HBV outcomes, indicating it may associate exclusively to HCC. ATF6 mRNA expression was significantly decreased as the disease progressed (p <0.001). Functional analyses show that the protective allele of rs2070150 could significantly increase the expression levels of ATF6 mRNA, as well as ATF6 regulated genes such as GRP78, XBP1 and CHOP. These findings indicate that a common missense SNP in ATF6 may contribute to susceptibility of HCC functionally.
International journal of cancer. Journal international du cancer.Int J Cancer.2014 Jul 1;135(1):61-8. doi: 10.1002/ijc.28649. Epub 2013 Dec 21.
Accumulated evidences indicate that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) are associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Activating transcription factor 6 (ATF6) is an important modulator of the unfolded protein response (UPR), which is regarded to be involved in carcinogenesis. So we s
PMID 24302549

The anticancer efficacy of pixantrone-loaded liposomes decorated with sialic acid-octadecylamine conjugate.

She Z1, Zhang T1, Wang X1, Li X1, Song Y1, Cheng X1, Huang Z1, Deng Y2.Author information 1College of Pharmacy, Shenyang Pharmaceutical University, 103 Wenhua Road, Shenyang, Liaoning 110016, China.2College of Pharmacy, Shenyang Pharmaceutical University, 103 Wenhua Road, Shenyang, Liaoning 110016, China. Electronic address: pharmdeng@gmail.com.AbstractBased on the knowledge that sialic acid is a critical element for tumor development and its receptors are highly expressed on the tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) which play important roles in the growth and metastasis of tumors, we synthesized a sialic acid-octadecylamine conjugate (SA-ODA) and anchored it on the surface of pixantrone (Pix)-loaded liposomes, to achieve an improved anticancer effect. Four Pix formulations (Pix-S, Pix-CL, Pix-PL and Pix-SAL represent solution, conventional liposome, stealth liposome, and SA-ODA modified liposome, respectively) were developed, and various parameters, including drug loading, stability, in vitro release, cytotoxicity and pharmacokinetics, were evaluated. The tumor growth inhibition and toxicity studies were performed in S180-bearing Kunming mice. Pix-S exhibited a strong toxicity to the immune system, accelerated the growth of tumors and reduced the lifespan of mice. In contrast, Pix-SAL displayed the strongest anticancer and life-prolonging effects among all of the formulations in this study. More importantly, injection of Pix-SAL induced a phenomenon whereby the cancerous tissues were "shed" from mice, after which the wound healed. We speculate that this special efficacy may be partly due to the killing of TAMs by Pix-SAL. This study suggests that SA-ODA modified liposomes may serve as an effective intravenous delivery vehicle for Pix.
Biomaterials.Biomaterials.2014 Jun;35(19):5216-25. doi: 10.1016/j.biomaterials.2014.03.022. Epub 2014 Apr 2.
Based on the knowledge that sialic acid is a critical element for tumor development and its receptors are highly expressed on the tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) which play important roles in the growth and metastasis of tumors, we synthesized a sialic acid-octadecylamine conjugate (SA-ODA) and
PMID 24703714

Liposomal clodronate inhibition of osteoclastogenesis and osteoinduction by submicrostructured beta-tricalcium phosphate.

Davison NL1, Gamblin AL2, Layrolle P2, Yuan H3, de Bruijn JD4, Barrère-de Groot F5.Author information 1MIRA Institute of Biomedical Technology and Technical Medicine, University of Twente, The Netherlands; Xpand Biotechnology B.V., The Netherlands. Electronic address: noel.davison@xpand-biotech.com.2INSERM UMR 957, Department of Pathophysiology of Bone Resorption, University of Nantes, France.3MIRA Institute of Biomedical Technology and Technical Medicine, University of Twente, The Netherlands; Xpand Biotechnology B.V., The Netherlands.4MIRA Institute of Biomedical Technology and Technical Medicine, University of Twente, The Netherlands; Xpand Biotechnology B.V., The Netherlands; School of Engineering and Materials Science (SEMS), Queen Mary University of London, United Kingdom.5Xpand Biotechnology B.V., The Netherlands.AbstractBone graft substitutes such as calcium phosphates are subject to the innate inflammatory reaction, which may bear important consequences for bone regeneration. We speculate that the surface architecture of osteoinductive β-tricalcium phosphate (TCP) stimulates the differentiation of invading monocyte/macrophages into osteoclasts, and that these cells may be essential to ectopic bone formation. To test this, porous TCP cubes with either submicron-scale surface architecture known to induce ectopic bone formation (TCPs, positive control) or micron-scale, non-osteoinductive surface architecture (TCPb, negative control) were subcutaneously implanted on the backs of FVB strain mice for 12 weeks. Additional TCPs samples received local, weekly injections of liposome-encapsulated clodronate (TCPs + LipClod) to deplete invading monocyte/macrophages. TCPs induced osteoclast formation, evident by positive tartrate resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) cytochemical staining and negative macrophage membrane marker F4/80 immunostaining. No TRAP positive cells were found in TCPb or TCPs + LipClod, only F4/80 positive macrophages and foreign body giant cells. TCPs stimulated subcutaneous bone formation in all implants, while no bone could be found in TCPb or TCPs + LipClod. In agreement, expression of bone and osteoclast gene markers was upregulated in TCPs versus both TCPb and TCPs + LipClod, which were equivalent. In summary, submicron-scale surface structure of TCP induced osteoclastogenesis and ectopic bone formation in a process that is blocked by monocyte/macrophage depletion.
Biomaterials.Biomaterials.2014 Jun;35(19):5088-97. doi: 10.1016/j.biomaterials.2014.03.013. Epub 2014 Mar 31.
Bone graft substitutes such as calcium phosphates are subject to the innate inflammatory reaction, which may bear important consequences for bone regeneration. We speculate that the surface architecture of osteoinductive β-tricalcium phosphate (TCP) stimulates the differentiation of invading monocy
PMID 24698521

Japanese Journal

Motion influences the perception of background lightness

Ashida Hiroshi,Scott-Samuel Nicholas E.
i-Perception 5(1), 41-49, 2014-01-13
… We speculate that asymmetry in the processing of a temporal gradient with increasing and decreasing contrast, as proposed to explain the "Rotating Snakes" illusion (Murakami, Kitaoka, & Ashida, 2006, Vision Research, 46, 2421–2431), might be the basis for this effect. …
NAID 120005367763

Usefulness of Early-phase Peritoneal Lavage for Treating Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Matsumoto Kazuyuki,Miyake Yasuhiro,Nakatsu Morihito,Toyokawa Tatsuya,Ando Masaharu,Hirohata Mamoru,Kato Hironari,Yamamoto Kazuhide
Internal Medicine 53(1), 1-6, 2014
… Conclusion We speculate that peritoneal lavage reduces the mortality and incidence of complications in patients with severe acute pancreatitis. …
NAID 130003383767

3) 多嚢胞性卵巣症候群とアンドロゲン : 疾患モデルが意味するもの(シンポジウム3:生殖「多嚢胞性卵巣症候群(PCOS)の病因・病態と管理」,第65回日本産科婦人科学会・学術講演会)

馬場剛
日本産科婦人科學會雜誌 65(12), 2709-2720, 2013-12-01
… Judging from these findings, we speculate that excess androgen exposure early in life might cause epigenetic modifications in putative genes predisposing to PCOS. …
NAID 110009685696

The Chicken HS4 Insulator Element Does Not Protect the H19 ICR from Differential DNA Methylation in Yeast Artificial Chromosome Transgenic Mouse

Okamura Eiichi,Matsuzaki Hitomi,Fukamizu Akiyoshi,Tanimoto Keiji,松﨑仁美,深水昭吉,谷本啓司
PLoS ONE 8(9), e73925, 2013-09
… Because this reduced level of methylation was also observed in the 5'HS4-deleted ICR' TgM, we speculate that the phenotype is due to VEZF1-dependent demethylation activity, rather than the insulator function, borne in cHS4. …
NAID 120005342716

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リンク元	「infer」「surmise」「guess」「推測」「conjecture」

「infer」

　　[★]

v.

推測する、推論する、推量する

関: conjecture、corollary、deduce、guess、inference、postulate、postulation、speculate、speculation、speculative、surmise

「surmise」

　　[★]

n.

推量、推測、意見

vt.vi.

推量する、推測する。～かと思う

関: conjecture, guess, infer, speculate, speculation, speculative

「guess」

　　[★]

推測、推察、推測する、推察する

関: conjecture、infer、speculate、speculation、speculative、surmise

「推測」

　　[★]

英: speculation、conjecture、guess、speculate、infer、surmise、guess、speculative
関: 推測上、推論、推量、推察

「conjecture」

　　[★]

推量、推測、推量する

関: guess、infer、speculate、speculation、speculative、surmise

[St.C3.A4heli_2013_4-1] Stäheli 2013, p. 4.

[Szado-2] Szado, Edward (2011). "Defining Speculation: The First Step toward a Rational Dialogue". The Journal of Alternative Investments. CAIA Association.

[CFTC-3] "CFTC Glossary: A guide to the language of the futures industry". cftc.gov. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 28 August 2012.

[Staffreport-4] "Staff Report on Commodity Swap Dealers & Index Traders with Commission Recommendations" (PDF). U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 2008. Retrieved 27 August 2012.

[5] Graham, Benjamin (1973). The Intelligent Investor. HarperCollins Books. ISBN 0-06-055566-1.

[6] Victor Niederhoffer, The Wall Street Journal, 10 February 1989 Daily Speculations

[chicagofed.org-7] ttp://chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/understanding_derivatives/understanding_derivatives_chapter_1_derivatives_overview.pdf

[uh-8] Unlikely heroes - Can hedge funds save the world? One pundit thinks so, The Economist, 16 February 2010

[Fleischer-9] Hollander, Barbara Gottfried (2011). Booms, Bubbles, & Busts (The Global Marketplace). Heinemann Library. pp. 40–41. ISBN 1432954776.

[LNP_2001_831-10] Lei, Noussair & Plott 2001, p. 831: "In a setting in which speculation is not possible, bubbles and crashes are observed. The results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation, but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality."

[Rosser-11] Rosser, J. Barkley (2000). From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities: Mathematics, Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, and Finance. p. 107.

[Shiller-12] Shiller, Robert J. (23 July 2012). "Bubbles without Markets". Retrieved 29 August 2012.

[Siegel-13] Siegel, Journal (2003). "What Is an Asset Price Bubble? An Operation Definition" (PDF). European Financial Management 9 (1): 11–24. doi:10.1111/1468-036x.00206.

[14] Dr. Stephen Spratt of Intelligence Capital (September 2006). "A Sterling Solution". Stamp Out Poverty report. Stamp Out Poverty Campaign. p. 15. Retrieved 2 January 2010.

[15] Chua, J. H. and R. S. Woodward (1983). "The Investment Wizardry of J.M. Keynes". Financial Analysts Journal 39 (3). pp. 35–37. JSTOR 4478643.

[16] Ziemba, Rachel and William Ziemba (2007). "Good and Bad properties of the Kelly criterion" (PDF). John Wiley & Sons. pp. 29–31. Retrieved 26 January 2010.

[17] Valente, Marcela. "Curbing foreign ownership of farmland." IPS, 22 May 2011.

[18] Frida Youssef (October 2000). "Integrated report on Commodity Exchanges And Forward Market Commission (FMC)". FMC.

[CFTC_Limits-19] "Speculative Limits". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2012.

[CFTC_Position_Limits-20] "CFTC Approves Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Regarding Regulations on Aggregation for Position Limits for Futures and Swaps". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2012.

[21] David Cho and Binyamin Appelbaum (22 January 2010). "Obama's 'Volcker Rule' shifts power away from Geithner". The Washington Post. Retrieved 13 February 2010.

[Ban-22] Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose (26 May 2008). "Germany in call for ban on oil speculation". The Daily Telegraph (The Daily Telegraph). Retrieved 28 May 2008.

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