出典(authority):フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)』「2018/02/21 06:31:21」(JST)
OPECの旗
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設立年 | 1960年9月14日、 |
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本部 | オーストリア、ウィーン |
メンバー |
14ヶ国 リスト
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公用語 | 英語[1] |
事務局長 | モハメド・バーキンド |
ウェブサイト | www.OPEC.org |
石油輸出国機構(せきゆゆしゅつこくきこう、英: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries、略称:OPEC(日本語発音:オペックopec 、アメリカ英語発音:[ˈoʊpek] オウペク))は、国際石油資本などから石油産出国の利益を守ることを目的として、1960年9月14日に設立された組織である。設立当初は、イラン、イラク、クウェート、サウジアラビア、ベネズエラの5ヶ国を加盟国としていたものの、後に加盟国は増加し、2017年7月現在では14ヶ国が加盟している。世界最大のカルテルとされ、1970年代には石油の価格決定権を国際石油資本より奪い、2度のオイルショックを引き起こしたが、1986年からは石油価格の決定権は自由市場へと移ったこともあり、現在では価格統制力はそれほど強いものではない。なお、オーストリアは加盟国ではないものの、石油輸出国機構の本部は首都ウィーンに設置されている。
石油輸出国によって結成され、輸出国の利益を守ることを主な目的とする。当初の設立目的がアメリカなど国際石油資本に対抗して産油国の利益を守るためであった。また1970年代から1980年代半ばにかけては実際に石油価格に大きな影響を及ぼしたためにカルテル的要素が強いと考えられているが、実際には必ずしもOPECの思うように石油価格を定められるような実効力は持ち合わせていない。これはOPECが対等な主権国家の連合体であり、営利企業に比べて加盟国間の足並みをそろえることが難しいうえ、生産調整の強制や抜け駆け増産を罰する仕組みも存在していないためである。このカルテル形成能力の弱さはOPEC設立期から続く弱点であり、本来ならば1970年代のように一時的にでも石油価格を統制することは困難であったと考えられているが、それまで実際に強力な石油カルテルを形成していた国際石油資本に対抗する関係上、一時的に加盟国すべてが協調する機運が高まったこと、1970年代のOPECの原油生産量は世界生産の60%近くに達していたうえ非加盟国の原油生産が頭打ちになっていたこと、それまで国際石油資本が形成していたカルテルをOPECが奪取した以上、OPECもまた国際石油資本と同様のカルテル形成能力を保持していると思われたことなどにより、10年以上にわたってまがりなりにもカルテルを形成できていたと考えられている[2]。しかし第2次オイルショック後、石油の供給過剰や非加盟国での油田開発によるシェアの減少、減産強制システムの不在によってカルテル形成能力の弱さが露呈した。最大の産油国であるサウジアラビアが減産を引き受けることである程度の調整が可能となったためしばらくカルテルは延命したが、この負担に耐えかねたサウジアラビアが減産を放棄したことで、1986年を最後にOPECは原油の価格統制力を失うこととなった。ただし2007年においてもOPECは全世界の原油生産量の42%、石油埋蔵量の3分の2を占め[3]、石油供給の鍵を握る存在である。このため、生産の調整などによって原油の価格に影響を及ぼすことができる存在となっている。価格を吊り上げる形でのカルテル形成能力は弱いが、緊急時に減産を行って暴落を防ぐ形のカルテル形成能力は一定程度保持しており、2008年のサブプライム住宅ローン危機における一時的な暴落の時には減産を繰り返すことで暴落に歯止めをかけている。また、加盟各国の代表的な原油の価格を加重平均した数値をOPECバスケット価格として発表しており、原油価格の重要な指標となっている。
OPECの最高決定機関は、全加盟国が参加する総会である。総会は6月と12月の年2回開かれるほか、緊急案件のある場合には臨時に開くことも可能である。加盟国の4分の3以上の参加によって開くことができ、全会一致によって決議となる[4]。機構維持のための拠出金は石油産出量にかかわらず各国同額とされているが、これは生産量の少ない加盟国の不満の種となっており、過去にこれを不服として1992年のエクアドルおよび1995年のガボンの2か国が脱退している。ただし、2007年にはエクアドルが、2016年にはガボンが再加盟を果たし、両国ともOPECに復帰した。加盟国内で最大の石油産出量および埋蔵量を誇るサウジアラビアの発言力が大きくリーダー的存在となっているが、加盟国に決定を強制するシステムが存在しないためその指導力は弱いものであり、しばしば加盟国が減産の決定に従わないことがある。
国 | 地域 | 加盟年[5] | 人口 (2015年)[6] |
面積 (km²)[7] |
石油生産量 (バレル/日、2015年)[8] |
確認埋蔵量 (バレル、2015年)[9] |
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アルジェリア | アフリカ | 1969年– | 39,542,166 | 2,381,740 | 1,370,000 | 12,200,000,000 |
アンゴラ | アフリカ | 2007年– | 19,625,353 | 1,246,700 | 1,842,000 | 9,010,000,000 |
エクアドル | 南アメリカ | 1973年–1992年、2007年– | 15,868,396 | 283,560 | 543,000 | 8,830,000,000 |
ガボン | アフリカ | 1975年–1994年、2016年– | 1,705,336 | 267,667 | 213,000 | 2,000,000,000 |
イラン | 中東 | 1960年[upper-alpha 1]– | 81,824,270 | 1,648,000 | 3,300,000 | 157,800,000,000 |
イラク | 中東 | 1960年[upper-alpha 1]– | 37,056,169 | 437,072 | 4,054,000 | 144,200,000,000 |
クウェート | 中東 | 1960年[upper-alpha 1]– | 2,788,534 | 17,820 | 2,562,000 | 104,000,000,000 |
リビア | アフリカ | 1962年– | 6,411,776 | 1,759,540 | 404,000 | 48,360,000,000 |
ナイジェリア | アフリカ | 1971年– | 181,562,056 | 923,768 | 2,317,000 | 37,070,000,000 |
カタール | 中東 | 1961年– | 2,194,817 | 11,437 | 1,532,000 | 25,240,000,000 |
サウジアラビア | 中東 | 1960年[upper-alpha 1]– | 27,752,316 | 2,149,690 | 10,046,000 | 268,290,000,000 |
アラブ首長国連邦 | 中東 | 1967年[upper-alpha 2]– | 5,779,760 | 83,600 | 2,820,000 | 97,800,000,000 |
ベネズエラ | 南アメリカ | 1960年[upper-alpha 1]– | 29,275,460 | 912,050 | 2,500,000 | 298,350,000,000 |
OPEC総計 | 707,380,083 | 14,027,213 | 34,288,000 | 1,216,840,000,000 | ||
世界総計 | 7,256,490,011 | 510,072,000 | 80,043,000 | 1,659,530,000,000 | ||
OPECの割合 | 10% | 3% | 43% | 73% |
2017年7月現在、14カ国が加盟している。
第二次世界大戦後、世界の石油生産は石油メジャーと呼ばれる7つの巨大企業がその大部分を掌握しており、強固なカルテルを結成して莫大な利益を上げていた。これにより原油の価格は安値で安定を見せており、先進各国の復興と経済成長に大きな役割を果たしたが、これに対し、実際に油田を持っている産油国には半分程度の利益しか入ってこなかった。しかし1950年代より第三世界にナショナリズムの波が押し寄せ、資源の利益を先進国の資本から途上国政府へと取り戻す、いわゆる資源ナショナリズムが盛り上がりを見せるようになってきた。また石油メジャー以外の中小石油会社やソヴィエト連邦のような社会主義国の石油生産も増大していき、メジャーの石油支配が綻びを見せるようになってきていた。
1950年代後半、石油産業の改革に関心が強かったベネズエラ大統領ロムロ・ベタンクール(英語版)の意向を受けた鉱山炭化水素大臣ペレス・アルフォンソ(英語版)は、南米と中東の石油産出国を団結させる協定を構想する。
1959年2月、石油を寡占していた国際石油資本(石油メジャー)が、産油国の了承なしに原油公示価格の引き下げを発表すると、これに強い不満を抱いた産油国はアラブ連盟第1回アラブ石油会議をカイロにて開催して、国際石油資本に対して原油価格改訂時の事前通告を要求するが受け入れられなかった。またこの会議には、アラブ連盟のほかイランとベネズエラも招かれて参加していた[10]。
その会議の際に、ペレス・アルフォンソはジャーナリストのワンダ・ジャブロンスキー(英語版)の仲介でサウジアラビアの石油鉱物資源大臣アブドゥッラー・アッ=タリーキー(英語版)と会談して、自分の考えていた協定について合意を求めた。石油メジャーが廉価で大量の原油を産出していたため、産油国の利益が少ないと考えていたタリーキーは、その求めに応じて合意した。後日、カイロにアラブの石油産出国の代表者を呼んで、その協定についての非公式な会合を開き、その非公式な協定について各国の署名を得た。
1960年8月、石油メジャーが再び価格の引き下げを行うと、石油産出国はそれに反発し、1960年9月14日、イラクのアブドルカリーム・カーシムの呼びかけに応じてイラク、イラン、クウェート、サウジアラビア、ベネズエラの五カ国の代表がバグダードに集まり、中東地域の産油国を中心として、石油輸出国機構を設立した[11]。本部は当初スイスのジュネーブに置かれた[12]が、のちにウィーンへと移転した。また加盟国も徐々に増加し、1961年にはカタール、1962年にリビアとインドネシア、1967年にアブダビ首長国(1971年にアラブ首長国連邦に参加したため以後同国が加盟権を受け継ぐ)、1969年にアルジェリア、1971年にナイジェリアが加盟し、石油産出量におけるシェアが拡大していった。またこれに伴い、OPECは石油メジャーと対抗できる実力を備えつつあった。
1970年代に入ると、OPECは石油メジャーに対して攻勢に立つようになった。1971年2月のテヘラン協定、3月のトリポリ協定でOPECは原油価格を石油メジャーと協議して決定することに成功し、これ以後しばらくは石油価格はOPECと石油メジャーとの協議により決定されることとなった。またこの協定により、原油価格を値上げする方向性を打ち出す。1972年のリヤド協定により、石油採掘事業そのものも石油メジャーから産油国への権利委譲を促すことが合意される。すでにリビアのムアンマル・アル=カッザーフィーが1970年に自国で油田の国有化を行っていたが、この協定以降国有化の流れは急速に強まり、同年中にイラクとアルジェリアが石油の国有化を行い、加盟各国もこれに追随する動きを見せた。これらの決定により原油価格の決定権が徐々に、国際石油資本から石油輸出国機構加盟の産油国側へと移ることになった。また、1973年にはエクアドルが新たに加盟した。
OPECが完全に石油価格の決定権を握ったのは、1973年の第1次石油危機においてである。1973年10月に第四次中東戦争が勃発すると、10月16日にはクウェートに集まったOPECの中東6カ国が原油価格を70%引き上げ[13]、さらに翌10月17日にはアラブ石油輸出国機構(OAPEC)がイスラエルを支持する西側諸国を標的に生産削減と石油禁輸を実行[14]。1973年12月には、OPECは更に130%の値上げを実行し[15]、原油価格は10月以前に比べて約4倍になった(当時1バレル1.90ドルから9.76ドルへ[16])。これによって原油価格の暴騰と、原油の不足が発生し、オイルショックと呼ばれる経済の混乱が起きた。これによってOPECはその存在感を世界中に示した。さらに加盟国内の油田、石油パイプライン、製油設備の国有化をすすめ、石油メジャーの影響力をさらに排除する。先の値上げにおいてOPECは石油メジャーに何の相談も行わず、以後石油価格は完全にOPECが決定することとなった[17]。またこの原油値上げによってOPEC加盟国に流れ込む原油収入は激増し、加盟各国は好景気に沸くこととなった。またこの膨大な原油収入は加盟各国の政治発言力を増大させ、オイルマネーとよばれる巨額の資金を世界の金融市場にもたらすこととなり、OPECの影響力もさらに強大なものとなっていった。
1974年に入ると石油禁輸は終了し[18]、それにともなってオイルショックも終息したものの、原油価格は下がらなかった。OPECは完全に原油価格の主導権を握り、カルテル化した。そして、その後も原油価格を少しずつつり上げ続けた。このころOPECの主導権を握ったのが、世界最大の原油生産国であるサウジアラビアである。サウジアラビアはアハマド・ザキ・ヤマニ石油相の指揮の元、OPEC内の利害関係を調整し、また原油需要に応じて自国の原油生産高を調整させることで需要と価格を統制し続けた。1975年にはガボンも加盟し、加盟国は13か国にまで拡大した。前述の国有化の流れはさらに加速し、ベネズエラがベネズエラ国営石油会社を、カタールがカタール・ペトロリアムを、クウェートがクウェート石油公社を、アブダビ首長国がアブダビ国営石油を設立して相次いで石油国有化を行い、そして1980年には最大の産油国であるサウジアラビアがサウジアラムコを完全国有化したことで、石油メジャーの影響力はほぼ消滅した。
1975年12月21日に、ベネズエラ人のカルロスら6人のテロリストが閣僚会議開催中のOPEC本部を襲撃し、警備の警官と銃撃戦の後、ヤマニなど各国代表ら石油大臣8名を人質にとった[19]。テロリスト側はオーストリア当局を相手に交渉を開始したが、その後OPEC側はテロリストの全ての要求を受け入れた。カルロスらはその後用意された飛行機でアルジェリアへ逃走したが、アルジェリア当局にほとんどの身代金を没収された。
その後も、1976年にサウジアラビアとイランやイラクとが対立して、サウジとアラブ首長国連邦が5%、イランやイラクが10%値上げをする[20]などいくらかの対立はあったものの、1977年にはサウジ・アラブ首長国連邦の値上げによって統一価格が復活し[21]、1978年後半まではおおむねOPECの市場支配は揺らがなかった。
1978年10月に、大産油国であるイランで政情悪化によるストライキが起き、石油価格が暴騰した。これに伴い、OPECも10%の値上げを決定した。その後、1979年1月にはイラン革命が勃発し、国王モハンマド・レザー・パフラヴィーがエジプトへ亡命(同地で死去)。これと、アメリカの石油需要の急拡大によって石油価格はさらに暴騰した。これを受けてOPECは価格を調整しようとしたが、日々価格が暴騰する情勢下で統一価格を維持することは不可能であり、合意の形成に失敗[22]。原油価格はとめどなく上がり続けた。第二次オイルショックである。この状態は1980年まで続き、その後も石油価格は高値を続けた。
こうした状況は、1982年ごろから変化する。オイルショック後、先進諸国の石油備蓄の拡大、代替エネルギーへの促進、北海油田やメキシコなどの非石油輸出国機構の産油量の増大などで供給過剰感が増大し、原油価格は低下し始めた。さらにOPECの強制力が弱いことが露呈したため、生産調整や原油価格設定をめぐる足並みが乱れ、多くの加盟国が減産に従わない状況になった。こうした状況で減産を一手に引き受けたのが主導国であり最大産油国でもあるサウジアラビアであり、同国の減産によってOPECの価格統制力はなんとか維持される状況が続いた。しかしその結果サウジアラビアの産油量は1980年の1000万バレルから1985年には200万バレルにまで急減し、これに耐えかねたサウジアラビアは1985年12月に減産を放棄して増産を開始した[23]。その結果1985年12月から1986年にかけて原油価格が6分の1になる大暴落が発生し、OPECは価格の支配力を大幅に減退させた。そして1986年、サウジアラビアが原油の公示価格制を放棄し、OPECが原油価格を決定できる時代は終わりを告げた[24]。そのかわりに、OPECは指標として加盟諸国の代表的な原油価格を加重平均した数値を1987年より発表するようになった。これはOPECバスケット価格と呼ばれ、原油価格の重要な指標となった。
1986年12月にはサウジアラビアの提案でOPECは生産上限と標準価格を設定し、このため1987年には原油価格はやや持ち直したものの、これを見た加盟各国が増産を行ったため、1987年末からは再び原油価格は下落に転じ、以後も生産枠設定によって一時価格が持ち直すものの加盟国の横紙破りによる増産によって値崩れするというパターンは継続した。そして、この状況にイラン・イラク戦争を終結させたばかりで不況にあえぐイラクが不満を募らせていった。1988年12月の総会でも生産上限が設定され価格は持ち直したものの、アラブ首長国連邦とクウェートがこれを無視して増産したため価格は再び低落した。1990年2月以降、イラクはこの2国を激しく非難しOPECの生産枠を順守するよう求めたが、OPECは2国にこれを守らせることができず、増産は続いた[25]。イラクの非難は強まる一方であったが、クウェートとアラブ首長国連邦はこれを全く無視し、対立は頂点に達した。こうして1990年8月2日、イラクはクウェート侵攻を行い同国全土を支配下に置いた。湾岸戦争の勃発である。この戦争によってクウェート・イラク・サウジアラビアといった大産油国の油田地帯が危機にさらされたため、皮肉にも一時的に原油価格は上昇した。しかし1991年2月28日に湾岸戦争が終結すると、再び原油価格は下落した。この原油安は1990年代を通じて続き、OPECの影響力は減退した。またOPECの機能不全や協調減産に対し不協和音が大きくなっていき、1992年にはエクアドルが、1994年にはガボンが脱退した。
ところが、1999年に全加盟国が協調して生産調整を行い、これによって原油価格を引き上げることに成功した[26]。2000年代にもこの協調は続き、原油価格は上昇の兆しを見せ始めた。しかし、2003年のイラク戦争を契機に、原油価格は上昇の速度を速めていった。不安定な中東情勢やBRICs諸国など新興国の需要増大によって原油価格は高騰し、OPECの影響力も再び強まってきた。2006年には価格低落の懸念から計日量170万バレルの減産を行った[27]ものの、2007年ごろにはOPECの想定値をはるかに越えた原油価格となったため、価格を安定化させるために増産が求められるようになってきた[28]。2007年には32年ぶりの新規加盟国としてアンゴラが加盟し、またエクアドルが再加盟した。2007年3月のOPEC総会では原油生産量は日量2580万バレルで据え置かれた[29]。しかし原油の高騰はさらに続き、過去最高値を更新する中で増産圧力はさらに増していき[30]、同年9月の総会では日量50万バレルの増産が決定された[31]。しかし市場はこの小規模な増産では不足していると受け止めたため、翌日の原油価格は再び過去最高値を記録した[32]。OPECはこの石油価格暴騰はドル安や投機資金の流入によるもので石油供給は十分なものであると判断していたため、以後も原油増産には消極的な姿勢を取りつづけた[33]。こうした中原油価格はさらに暴騰し、2008年1月2日にはついに1バレル100ドルを突破した[34]。OPECはこの後も2008年中の原油暴騰期を通じ増産をすることはなく、加盟国であったインドネシアが石油生産量の減少によって同年OPECを脱退した[35]こともあって原油価格は天井知らずとなり、6月30日には1バレルが147ドルにまで達した[36]。
しかしその後、サブプライム住宅ローン危機に端を発する不況によって原油価格は一時的に暴落に転じ、OPECはこれを受けて9月10日に日量52万バレルを減産[37]、10月24日には日量150万バレルの減産を決定し[38]、12月17日には日量220万バレル減産で合意する[39]など矢継ぎ早に減産を実施し、原油価格の高値維持に努めた。こうしたことから原油価格は12月19日に33ドル台をつけた[40]のち上昇に転じ、アラブの春の影響で複数の産油国が政情不安に陥ったこともあり、2011年には再び1バレル100ドルを突破するなど、暴騰状態に戻った[41]。
こうした暴騰状態は2014年まで継続したものの、1980年代と同じく石油価格の上昇による非加盟国での原油の大増産が起き、一方で新興国の経済成長は鈍化したため石油の消費量の伸びも鈍り、徐々に原油は過剰な状態となっていった。今回は特にアメリカにおけるシェールガス革命と呼ばれるタイトオイルの増産が著しく、2014年の秋頃からのこの影響で原油価格が下がりはじめ、2015年にはWTIが従来の半分近い価格にまで急激に下落した。そのような状況にもかかわらず、2014年のOPEC総会においてはシェールガスに対抗するため日量3000万バレルの生産量の据え置きを決定し[42]、価格競争に踏み切ったために暴落傾向はさらに加速した。OPECが価格競争に踏み切った背景には、シェールガスの生産コストの高さがある。シェールガスは新技術の開発によって商業的生産が可能となったものの生産コストは高く、産油国が価格競争を仕掛けた場合コストに耐えられずに生産を休止すると考えられたためである。しかしながら、産油国においても生産コストは一様ではなく、湾岸諸国など良質な油田に恵まれた地域では生産コストが非常に低く価格競争には耐えられるものの、それ以外の生産コストが高い地域においては原油価格の低迷は採算の悪化を意味したため、加盟国の経済に大きな打撃を与えた。2015年の年末には、2014年6月に比べ価格はわずか33%の36ドルにまで下落してしまった[43]。さらにその後もOPEC内の足並みはそろわず、一部加盟国が増産するなどOPEC全体として減産できず在庫過剰状態となっていた。2015年12月には再び大産油国となったアメリカが40年ぶりに原油輸出を解禁する動きを見せ[44][45]、2016年1月イランの核開発問題に関連した欧米諸国の経済制裁の解除によりイランの石油輸出が本格的に再開し、一段と在庫過剰状態となった[46]。
しかし原油暴落は長期化の様相を見せ始め、石油収入に歳入の大部分を頼る加盟各国の経済悪化が鮮明になってきたため加盟国は姿勢を転換させ、2016年11月30日、ウィーンの本部で開いた総会で、原油生産を減らすことで約8年ぶりに合意した。非加盟のロシアも同調する方針で、主要産油国がそろって低迷する原油価格の押し上げを目指す形となった[47]。またインドネシアが減産不参加により、2015年11月の再加盟決定から1年でメンバーシップ停止となった[48]一方で、ガボンが22年ぶりに再加盟を果たし[49]、加盟国は13か国となった。
OPECの最小生産国ガボンを超える生産国、( )内は生産量 (千バレル/日、2015年、BP統計より)
[ヘルプ] |
ウィキメディア・コモンズには、石油輸出国機構に関連するカテゴリがあります。 |
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Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
|
|
---|---|
Flag
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|
Headquarters | Vienna, Austria |
Official language | English |
Type | International cartel[1] |
Membership |
14 states
(May 2017)[2][3]
|
Leaders | |
• Secretary General
|
Mohammed Barkindo |
Establishment | Baghdad, Iraq |
• Statute
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September 1960 |
• In effect
|
January 1961 |
Currency | Indexed as USD per barrel (US$ /bbl) |
Website
www |
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, /ˈoʊpɛk/ OH-pek, or OPEP in several other languages) is an intergovernmental organization of 14 nations as of February 2018, founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela), and headquartered since 1965 in Vienna. As of 2016, the 14 countries accounted for an estimated 44 percent of global oil production and 73 percent of the world's "proven" oil reserves, giving OPEC a major influence on global oil prices that were previously determined by American-dominated multinational oil companies.
OPEC's stated mission is "to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets, in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry."[4] The organization is also a significant provider of information about the international oil market. As of May 2017, OPEC's members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (the de facto leader), United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela, while Indonesia is a former member. Two-thirds of OPEC's oil production and reserves are in its six Middle Eastern countries that surround the oil-rich Persian Gulf.
The formation of OPEC marked a turning point toward national sovereignty over natural resources, and OPEC decisions have come to play a prominent role in the global oil market and international relations. The effect can be particularly strong when wars or civil disorders lead to extended interruptions in supply. In the 1970s, restrictions in oil production led to a dramatic rise in oil prices and OPEC's revenue and wealth, with long-lasting and far-reaching consequences for the global economy. In the 1980s, OPEC started setting production targets for its member nations; and generally when the production targets are reduced, oil prices increase, most recently from the organization's 2008 and 2016 decisions to trim oversupply.
Economists often cite OPEC as a textbook example of a cartel that cooperates to reduce market competition, but whose consultations are protected by the doctrine of state immunity under international law. In December 2014, "OPEC and the oil men" ranked as #3 on Lloyd's list of "the top 100 most influential people in the shipping industry".[5] However, their influence on international trade is periodically challenged by the expansion of non-OPEC energy sources, and by the recurring temptation for individual OPEC countries to exceed production ceilings and pursue conflicting self-interests.
As of May 2017, OPEC has 14 member countries: six in the Middle East (Western Asia), six in Africa, and two in South America. According to the US Energy Information Administration, OPEC's combined rate of oil production (including gas condensate) represented 44 percent of the world's total in 2016,[6] and OPEC accounted for 73 percent of the world's "proven" oil reserves, including 48 percent from just the six Middle Eastern members:[7]
Approval of a new member country requires agreement by three-quarters of OPEC's existing members, including all five of the founders.[8] In October 2015, Sudan formally submitted an application to join,[9] but it is not yet a member.
Country | Region | Membership Years[2][3] | Population (2016 est.)[10] |
Area (km2)[11] |
Oil Production (bbl/day, 2016)[A][6] |
Proven Reserves (bbl, 2016)[A][7] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Algeria | North Africa | 1969– | 40,606,052 | 2,381,740 | 1,348,361 | 12,200,000,000 |
Angola | Southern Africa | 2007– | 28,813,463 | 1,246,700 | 1,769,615 | 8,423,000,000 |
Ecuador | Americas | 1973–1992, 2007– | 16,385,068 | 283,560 | 548,421 | 8,273,000,000 |
Equatorial Guinea | Western Africa | 2017– | 1,221,490 | 28,051 | 227,000 | 1,100,000,000 |
Gabon | Western Africa | 1975–1995, 2016– | 1,979,786 | 267,667 | 210,820 | 2,000,000,000 |
Iran | Middle East | 1960[B]– | 80,277,428 | 1,648,000 | 3,990,956 | 157,530,000,000 |
Iraq | Middle East | 1960[B]– | 37,202,572 | 437,072 | 4,451,516 | 143,069,000,000 |
Kuwait | Middle East | 1960[B]– | 4,052,584 | 17,820 | 2,923,825 | 101,500,000,000 |
Libya | North Africa | 1962– | 6,293,253 | 1,759,540 | 384,686 | 48,363,000,000 |
Nigeria | Western Africa | 1971– | 185,989,640 | 923,768 | 1,999,885 | 37,070,000,000 |
Qatar | Middle East | 1961– | 2,569,804 | 11,437 | 1,522,902 | 25,244,000,000 |
Saudi Arabia | Middle East | 1960[B]– | 32,275,687 | 2,149,690 | 10,460,710 | 266,578,000,000 |
United Arab Emirates | Middle East | 1967[C]– | 9,269,612 | 83,600 | 3,106,077 | 97,800,000,000 |
Venezuela | Americas | 1960[B]– | 31,568,179 | 912,050 | 2,276,967 | 299,953,000,000 |
OPEC Total | 478,498,000 | 12,150,695 | 35,221,740 | 1,209,103,000,000 | ||
World Total | 7,603,711,000 | 510,072,000 | 80,622,287 | 1,650,585,000,000 | ||
OPEC Percent | 6% | 2% | 44% | 73% |
Country | Region | Membership Years[2] | Population (2016 est.)[10] |
Area (km2)[11] |
Oil Production (bbl/day, 2016)[6] |
Proven Reserves (bbl, 2016)[7] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indonesia | Southeast Asia | 1962–2008, Rejoined 2014–2016 | 261,115,456 | 1,904,569 | 833,667 | 3,692,500,000 |
For countries that export petroleum at relatively low volume, their limited negotiating power as OPEC members would not necessarily justify the burdens imposed by OPEC production quotas and membership costs. Ecuador withdrew from OPEC in December 1992, because it was unwilling to pay the annual US$2 million membership fee and felt that it needed to produce more oil than it was allowed under its OPEC quota at the time,[13] although it rejoined in October 2007. Similar concerns prompted Gabon to suspend membership in January 1995;[14] it rejoined in July 2016. In May 2008, Indonesia announced that it would leave OPEC when its membership expired at the end of that year, having become a net importer of oil and being unable to meet its production quota.[15] It rejoined the organization in January 2016,[2] but announced another "temporary suspension" of its membership at year-end when OPEC requested a 5 percent production cut.[16]
Some commentators consider that the United States was a de facto member of OPEC during its formal occupation of Iraq, due to its leadership of the Coalition Provisional Authority in 2003–2004.[17][18] But this is not borne out by the minutes of OPEC meetings, as no US representative attended in an official capacity.[19][20]
Since the 1980s, representatives from Egypt, Mexico, Norway, Oman, Russia, and other oil-exporting nations have attended many OPEC meetings as observers. This arrangement serves as an informal mechanism for coordinating policies.[21]
The OPEC Conference is the supreme authority of the organization, and consists of delegations normally headed by the oil ministers of member countries. The chief executive of the organization is the OPEC Secretary General. The Conference ordinarily meets at the Vienna headquarters, at least twice a year and in additional extraordinary sessions when necessary. It generally operates on the principles of unanimity and "one member, one vote", with each country paying an equal membership fee into the annual budget.[8] However, since Saudi Arabia is by far the largest and most-profitable oil exporter in the world, with enough capacity to function as the traditional swing producer to balance the global market, it serves as "OPEC's de facto leader".[22]
At various times, OPEC members have displayed apparent anti-competitive cartel behavior through the organization's agreements about oil production and price levels.[23] In fact, economists often cite OPEC as a textbook example of a cartel that cooperates to reduce market competition, as in this definition from OECD's Glossary of Industrial Organisation Economics and Competition Law:[1]
International commodity agreements covering products such as coffee, sugar, tin and more recently oil (OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) are examples of international cartels which have publicly entailed agreements between different national governments.
OPEC members strongly prefer to describe their organization as a modest force for market stabilization, rather than a powerful anti-competitive cartel. In its defense, the organization was founded as a counterweight against the previous "Seven Sisters" cartel of multinational oil companies, and non-OPEC energy suppliers have maintained enough market share for a substantial degree of worldwide competition.[24] Moreover, because of an economic "prisoner's dilemma" that encourages each member nation individually to discount its price and exceed its production quota,[25] widespread cheating within OPEC often erodes its ability to influence global oil prices through collective action.[26][27]
OPEC has not been involved in any disputes related to the competition rules of the World Trade Organization, even though the objectives, actions, and principles of the two organizations diverge considerably.[28] A key US District Court decision held that OPEC consultations are protected as "governmental" acts of state by the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act, and are therefore beyond the legal reach of US competition law governing "commercial" acts.[29][30] Despite popular sentiment against OPEC, legislative proposals to limit the organization's sovereign immunity, such as the NOPEC Act, have so far been unsuccessful.[31]
OPEC often has difficulty agreeing on policy decisions because its member countries differ widely in their oil export capacities, production costs, reserves, geological features, population, economic development, budgetary situations, and political circumstances.[32][33] Indeed, over the course of market cycles, oil reserves can themselves become a source of serious conflict, instability and imbalances, in what economists call the "natural resource curse".[34][35] A further complication is that religion-linked conflicts in the Middle East are recurring features of the geopolitical landscape for this oil-rich region.[36][37] Internationally important conflicts in OPEC's history have included the Six-Day War (1967), Yom Kippur War (1973), a hostage siege directed by Palestinian militants (1975), the Iranian Revolution (1979), Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), Iraqi occupation of Kuwait (1990–1991), September 11 attacks by mostly Saudi hijackers (2001), American occupation of Iraq (2003–2011), Conflict in the Niger Delta (2004–present), Arab Spring (2010–2012), Libyan Crisis (2011–present), and international Embargo against Iran (2012–2016). Although events such as these can temporarily disrupt oil supplies and elevate prices, the frequent disputes and instabilities tend to limit OPEC's long-term cohesion and effectiveness.[38]
As one area in which OPEC members have been able to cooperate productively over the decades, the organization has significantly improved the quality and quantity of information available about the international oil market. This is especially helpful for a natural-resource industry whose smooth functioning requires months and years of careful planning.
In April 2001, OPEC collaborated with five other international organizations (APEC, Eurostat, IEA, OLADE (es), UNSD) to improve the availability and reliability of oil data. They launched the Joint Oil Data Exercise, which in 2005 was joined by IEF and renamed the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), covering more than 90 percent of the global oil market. GECF joined as an eighth partner in 2014, enabling JODI also to cover nearly 90 percent of the global market for natural gas.[39]
Since 2007, OPEC has published the "World Oil Outlook" (WOO) annually, in which it presents a comprehensive analysis of the global oil industry including medium- and long-term projections for supply and demand.[40] OPEC also produces an "Annual Statistical Bulletin" (ASB),[41] and publishes more-frequent updates in its "Monthly Oil Market Report" (MOMR)[42] and "OPEC Bulletin".[43]
A "crude oil benchmark" is a standardized petroleum product that serves as a convenient reference price for buyers and sellers of crude oil, including standardized contracts in major futures markets since 1983. Benchmarks are used because oil prices differ (usually by a few dollars per barrel) based on variety, grade, delivery date and location, and other legal requirements.[44][45]
The OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes has been an important benchmark for oil prices since 2000. It is calculated as a weighted average of prices for petroleum blends from the OPEC member countries: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Oriente (Ecuador), Rabi Light (Gabon), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE), and Merey (Venezuela).[46]
North Sea Brent Crude Oil is the leading benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils, and is used to price approximately two-thirds of the world's traded crude oil. Other well-known benchmarks are West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Dubai Crude, Oman Crude, and Urals oil.[47]
The US Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, defines spare capacity for crude oil market management "as the volume of production that can be brought on within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days... OPEC spare capacity provides an indicator of the world oil market's ability to respond to potential crises that reduce oil supplies."[48]
In November 2014, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that OPEC's "effective" spare capacity, adjusted for ongoing disruptions in countries like Libya and Nigeria, was 3.5 million barrels per day (560,000 m3/d) and that this number would increase to a peak in 2017 of 4.6 million barrels per day (730,000 m3/d).[49] By November 2015, the IEA changed its assessment "with OPEC's spare production buffer stretched thin, as Saudi Arabia – which holds the lion's share of excess capacity – and its [Persian] Gulf neighbours pump at near-record rates."[50]
In 1949, Venezuela and Iran took the earliest steps in the direction of OPEC, by inviting Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to improve communication among petroleum-exporting nations as the world recovered from World War II.[51] At the time, some of the world's largest oil fields were just entering production in the Middle East. The United States had established the Interstate Oil Compact Commission to join the Texas Railroad Commission in limiting overproduction. The US was simultaneously the world's largest producer and consumer of oil; and the world market was dominated by a group of multinational companies known as the "Seven Sisters", five of which were headquartered in the US following the breakup of John D. Rockefeller's original Standard Oil monopoly. Oil-exporting countries were eventually motivated to form OPEC as a counterweight to this concentration of political and economic power.[52]
In February 1959, as new supplies were becoming available, the multinational oil companies (MOCs) unilaterally reduced their posted prices for Venezuelan and Middle Eastern crude oil by 10 percent. Weeks later, the Arab League's first Arab Petroleum Congress convened in Cairo, Egypt, where the influential journalist Wanda Jablonski introduced Saudi Arabia's Abdullah Tariki to Venezuela's observer Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo, representing the two then-largest oil-producing nations outside the United States and the Soviet Union. Both oil ministers were angered by the price cuts, and the two led their fellow delegates to establish the Maadi Pact or Gentlemen's Agreement, calling for an "Oil Consultation Commission" of exporting countries, to which MOCs should present price-change plans. Jablonski reported a marked hostility toward the West and a growing outcry against "absentee landlordism" of the MOCs, which at the time controlled all oil operations within the exporting countries and wielded enormous political influence. In August 1960, ignoring the warnings, and with the US favoring Canadian and Mexican oil for strategic reasons, the MOCs again unilaterally announced significant cuts in their posted prices for Middle Eastern crude oil.[51][52][53][54]
The following month, during 10–14 September 1960, the Baghdad Conference was held at the initiative of Tariki, Pérez Alfonzo, and Iraqi prime minister Abd al-Karim Qasim, whose country had skipped the 1959 congress.[55] Government representatives from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela met in Baghdad to discuss ways to increase the price of crude oil produced by their countries, and ways to respond to unilateral actions by the MOCs. Despite strong US opposition: "Together with Arab and non-Arab producers, Saudi Arabia formed the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC) to secure the best price available from the major oil corporations."[56] The Middle Eastern members originally called for OPEC headquarters to be in Baghdad or Beirut, but Venezuela argued for a neutral location, and so the organization chose Geneva, Switzerland. On 1 September 1965, OPEC moved to Vienna, Austria, after Switzerland declined to extend diplomatic privileges.[57]
During 1961–1975, the five founding nations were joined by Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962–2008, rejoined 2014-2016), Libya (1962), United Arab Emirates (originally just the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, 1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973–1992, rejoined 2007), and Gabon (1975–1994, rejoined 2016).[2] By the early 1970s, OPEC's membership accounted for more than half of worldwide oil production.[58] Indicating that OPEC is not averse to further expansion, Mohammed Barkindo, OPEC's Acting Secretary General in 2006, urged his African neighbors Angola and Sudan to join,[59] and Angola did in 2007, followed by Equatorial Guinea in 2017.[3] Since the 1980s, representatives from Egypt, Mexico, Norway, Oman, Russia, and other oil-exporting nations have attended many OPEC meetings as observers, as an informal mechanism for coordinating policies.[21]
In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab majority of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) declared significant production cuts and an oil embargo against the United States and other industrialized nations that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War.[60][61] A previous embargo attempt was largely ineffective in response to the Six-Day War in 1967.[62] However, in 1973, the result was a sharp rise in oil prices and OPEC revenues, from US$3/bbl to US$12/bbl, and an emergency period of energy rationing, intensified by panic reactions, a declining trend in US oil production, currency devaluations,[61] and a lengthy UK coal-miners dispute. For a time, the UK imposed an emergency three-day workweek.[63] Seven European nations banned non-essential Sunday driving.[64] US gas stations limited the amount of gasoline that could be dispensed, closed on Sundays, and restricted the days when gasoline could be purchased, based on license plate numbers.[65][66] Even after the embargo ended in March 1974 following intense diplomatic activity, prices continued to rise. The world experienced a global economic recession, with unemployment and inflation surging simultaneously, steep declines in stock and bond prices, major shifts in trade balances and petrodollar flows, and a dramatic end to the post-WWII economic boom.[67][68]
The 1973–1974 oil embargo had lasting effects on the United States and other industrialized nations, which established the International Energy Agency in response, as well as national emergency stockpiles designed to withstand months of future supply disruptions. Oil conservation efforts included lower speed limits on highways, smaller and more energy-efficient cars and appliances, year-round daylight saving time, reduced usage of heating and air-conditioning, better insulation, increased support of mass transit, and greater emphasis on coal, natural gas, ethanol, nuclear and other alternative energy sources. These long-term efforts became effective enough that US oil consumption would rise only 11 percent during 1980–2014, while real GDP rose 150 percent. But in the 1970s, OPEC nations demonstrated convincingly that their oil could be used as both a political and economic weapon against other nations, at least in the short term.[61][69][70][71][72]
OPEC's international aid activities date from well before the 1973–1974 oil price surge. For example, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development has operated since 1961.[73]
In the years after 1973, as an example of so-called "checkbook diplomacy", certain Arab nations have been among the world's largest providers of foreign aid,[74][75] and OPEC added to its goals the selling of oil for the socio-economic growth of poorer nations. The OPEC Special Fund was conceived in Algiers, Algeria, in March 1975, and was formally established the following January. "A Solemn Declaration 'reaffirmed the natural solidarity which unites OPEC countries with other developing countries in their struggle to overcome underdevelopment,' and called for measures to strengthen cooperation between these countries... [The OPEC Special Fund's] resources are additional to those already made available by OPEC states through a number of bilateral and multilateral channels."[76] The Fund became an official international development agency in May 1980 and was renamed the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID),[77] with Permanent Observer status at the United Nations.[78]
On 21 December 1975, Saudi Arabia's Ahmed Zaki Yamani, Iran's Jamshid Amuzegar, and the other OPEC oil ministers were taken hostage at their semi-annual conference in Vienna, Austria. The attack, which killed three non-ministers, was orchestrated by a six-person team led by Venezuelan terrorist "Carlos the Jackal", and which included Gabriele Kröcher-Tiedemann and Hans-Joachim Klein. The self-named "Arm of the Arab Revolution" group declared its goal to be the liberation of Palestine. Carlos planned to take over the conference by force and hold for ransom all eleven attending oil ministers, except for Yamani and Amuzegar who were to be executed.[79]
Carlos arranged bus and plane travel for his team and 42 of the original 63 hostages, with stops in Algiers and Tripoli, planning to fly eventually to Baghdad, where Yamani and Amuzegar were to be killed. All 30 non-Arab hostages were released in Algiers, excluding Amuzegar. Additional hostages were released at another stop in Tripoli before returning to Algiers. With only 10 hostages remaining, Carlos held a phone conversation with Algerian President Houari Boumédienne, who informed Carlos that the oil ministers' deaths would result in an attack on the plane. Boumédienne must also have offered Carlos asylum at this time and possibly financial compensation for failing to complete his assignment. Carlos expressed his regret at not being able to murder Yamani and Amuzegar, then he and his comrades left the plane. All the hostages and terrorists walked away from the situation, two days after it began.[79]
Some time after the attack, Carlos's accomplices revealed that the operation was commanded by Wadie Haddad, a founder of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. They also claimed that the idea and funding came from an Arab president, widely thought to be Muammar al-Gaddafi of Libya, itself an OPEC member. Fellow militants Bassam Abu Sharif and Klein claimed that Carlos received and kept a ransom between US$20 million and US$50 million from "an Arab president". Carlos claimed that Saudi Arabia paid ransom on behalf of Iran, but that the money was "diverted en route and lost by the Revolution".[79][80] He was finally captured in 1994 and is serving life sentences for at least 16 other murders.[81]
In response to a wave of oil nationalizations and the high prices of the 1970s, industrial nations took steps to reduce their dependence on OPEC oil, especially after prices reached new peaks approaching US$40/bbl in 1979–1980[84][85] when the Iranian Revolution and Iran–Iraq War disrupted regional stability and oil supplies. Electric utilities worldwide switched from oil to coal, natural gas, or nuclear power;[86] national governments initiated multibillion-dollar research programs to develop alternatives to oil;[87][88] and commercial exploration developed major non-OPEC oilfields in Siberia, Alaska, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.[89] By 1986, daily worldwide demand for oil dropped by 5 million barrels, non-OPEC production rose by an even-larger amount,[90] and OPEC's market share sank from approximately 50 percent in 1979 to less than 30 percent in 1985.[58] Illustrating the volatile multi-year timeframes of typical market cycles for natural resources, the result was a six-year decline in the price of oil, which culminated by plunging more than half in 1986 alone.[91] As one oil analyst summarized succinctly: "When the price of something as essential as oil spikes, humanity does two things: finds more of it and finds ways to use less of it."[58]
To combat falling revenue from oil sales, in 1982 Saudi Arabia pressed OPEC for audited national production quotas in an attempt to limit output and boost prices. When other OPEC nations failed to comply, Saudi Arabia first slashed its own production from 10 million barrels daily in 1979–1981 to just one-third of that level in 1985. When even this proved ineffective, Saudi Arabia reversed course and flooded the market with cheap oil, causing prices to fall below US$10/bbl and higher-cost producers to become unprofitable.[90] Faced with increasing economic hardship (which ultimately contributed to the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1989),[92][93] the "free-riding" oil exporters that had previously failed to comply with OPEC agreements finally began to limit production to shore up prices, based on painstakingly negotiated national quotas that sought to balance oil-related and economic criteria since 1986.[90][94] (Within their sovereign-controlled territories, the national governments of OPEC members are able to impose production limits on both government-owned and private oil companies.)[95] Generally when OPEC production targets are reduced, oil prices increase.[48]
Leading up to his August 1990 Invasion of Kuwait, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was pushing OPEC to end overproduction and to send oil prices higher, in order to help OPEC members financially and to accelerate rebuilding from the 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq War.[98] But these two Iraqi wars against fellow OPEC founders marked a low point in the cohesion of the organization, and oil prices subsided quickly after the short-term supply disruptions. The September 2001 Al Qaeda attacks on the US and the March 2003 US invasion of Iraq had even milder short-term impacts on oil prices, as Saudi Arabia and other exporters again cooperated to keep the world adequately supplied.[97]
In the 1990s, OPEC lost its two newest members, who had joined in the mid-1970s. Ecuador withdrew in December 1992, because it was unwilling to pay the annual US$2 million membership fee and felt that it needed to produce more oil than it was allowed under the OPEC quota,[13] although it rejoined in October 2007. Similar concerns prompted Gabon to suspend membership in January 1995;[14] it rejoined in July 2016.[2] Iraq has remained a member of OPEC since the organization's founding, but Iraqi production was not a part of OPEC quota agreements from 1998 to 2016, due to the country's daunting political difficulties.[41][99]
Lower demand triggered by the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis saw the price of oil fall back to 1986 levels. After oil slumped to around US$10/bbl, joint diplomacy achieved a gradual slowing of oil production by OPEC, Mexico and Norway.[100]
In June 2003, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC held their first joint workshop on energy issues. They have continued to meet regularly since then, "to collectively better understand trends, analysis and viewpoints and advance market transparency and predictability."[101]
Widespread insurgency and sabotage occurred during the 2003–2008 height of the American occupation of Iraq, coinciding with rapidly increasing oil demand from China and commodity-hungry investors, recurring violence against the Nigerian oil industry, and dwindling spare capacity as a cushion against potential shortages. This combination of forces prompted a sharp rise in oil prices to levels far higher than those previously targeted by OPEC.[102][103][104] Price volatility reached an extreme in 2008, as WTI crude oil surged to a record US$147/bbl in July and then plunged back to US$32/bbl in December, during the worst global recession since World War II.[105] OPEC's annual oil export revenue also set a new record in 2008, estimated around US$1 trillion, and reached similar annual rates in 2011–2014 (along with extensive petrodollar recycling activity) before plunging again.[83] By the time of the 2011 Libyan Civil War and Arab Spring, OPEC started issuing explicit statements to counter "excessive speculation" in oil futures markets, blaming financial speculators for increasing volatility beyond market fundamentals.[106]
In May 2008, Indonesia announced that it would leave OPEC when its membership expired at the end of that year, having become a net importer of oil and being unable to meet its production quota.[15] A statement released by OPEC on 10 September 2008 confirmed Indonesia's withdrawal, noting that OPEC "regretfully accepted the wish of Indonesia to suspend its full membership in the organization, and recorded its hope that the country would be in a position to rejoin the organization in the not-too-distant future."[107]
The differing economic needs of OPEC member states often affect the internal debates behind OPEC production quotas. Poorer members have pushed for production cuts from fellow members, to increase the price of oil and thus their own revenues.[108] These proposals conflict with Saudi Arabia's stated long-term strategy of being a partner with the world's economic powers to ensure a steady flow of oil that would support economic expansion.[109] Part of the basis for this policy is the Saudi concern that overly expensive oil or unreliable supply will drive industrial nations to conserve energy and develop alternative fuels, curtailing the worldwide demand for oil and eventually leaving unneeded barrels in the ground.[110] To this point, Saudi Oil Minister Yamani famously remarked in 1973: "The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones."[111]
On 10 September 2008, with oil prices still near US$100/bbl, a production dispute occurred when the Saudis reportedly walked out of a negotiating session where rival members voted to reduce OPEC output. Although Saudi delegates officially endorsed the new quotas, they stated anonymously that they would not observe them. The New York Times quoted one such delegate as saying: "Saudi Arabia will meet the market's demand. We will see what the market requires and we will not leave a customer without oil. The policy has not changed."[33] Over the next few months, oil prices plummeted into the $30s, and did not return to $100 until the Libyan Civil War in 2011.[112]
During 2014–2015, OPEC members consistently exceeded their production ceiling, and China experienced a slowdown in economic growth. At the same time, US oil production nearly doubled from 2008 levels and approached the world-leading "swing producer" volumes of Saudi Arabia and Russia, due to the substantial long-term improvement and spread of shale "fracking" technology in response to the years of record oil prices. These developments led in turn to a plunge in US oil import requirements (moving closer to energy independence), a record volume of worldwide oil inventories, and a collapse in oil prices that continued into early 2016.[112][114][115]
In spite of global oversupply, on 27 November 2014 in Vienna, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi blocked appeals from poorer OPEC members for production cuts to support prices. Naimi argued that the oil market should be left to rebalance itself competitively at lower price levels, strategically rebuilding OPEC's long-term market share by ending the profitability of high-cost US shale oil production.[116] As he explained in an interview:[32]
Is it reasonable for a highly efficient producer to reduce output, while the producer of poor efficiency continues to produce? That is crooked logic. If I reduce, what happens to my market share? The price will go up and the Russians, the Brazilians, US shale oil producers will take my share... We want to tell the world that high-efficiency producing countries are the ones that deserve market share. That is the operative principle in all capitalist countries... One thing is for sure: Current prices [roughly US$60/bbl] do not support all producers.
A year later, when OPEC met in Vienna on 4 December 2015, the organization had exceeded its production ceiling for 18 consecutive months, US oil production had declined only slightly from its peak, world markets appeared to be oversupplied by at least 2 million barrels per day despite war-torn Libya pumping 1 million barrels below capacity, oil producers were making major adjustments to withstand prices as low as the $40s, Indonesia was rejoining the export organization, Iraqi production had surged after years of disorder, Iranian output was poised to rebound with the lifting of international sanctions, hundreds of world leaders at the Paris Climate Agreement were committing to limit carbon emissions from fossil fuels, and solar technologies were becoming steadily more competitive and prevalent. In light of all these market pressures, OPEC decided to set aside its ineffective production ceiling until the next ministerial conference in June 2016.[22][115][117][118][119][120] By 20 January 2016, the OPEC Reference Basket was down to US$22.48/bbl – less than one-fourth of its high from June 2014 ($110.48), less than one-sixth of its record from July 2008 ($140.73), and back below the April 2003 starting point ($23.27) of its historic run-up.[112]
As 2016 continued, the oil glut was partially trimmed with significant production offline in the US, Canada, Libya, Nigeria and China, and the basket price gradually rose back into the $40s. OPEC regained a modest percentage of market share, saw the cancellation of many competing drilling projects, maintained the status quo at its June conference, and endorsed "prices at levels that are suitable for both producers and consumers", although many producers were still experiencing serious economic difficulties.[121][122][123][124]
As OPEC members grew weary of a multi-year supply contest with diminishing returns and shrinking financial reserves, the organization finally attempted its first production cut since 2008. Despite many political obstacles, a September 2016 decision to trim approximately 1 million barrels per day was codified by a new quota agreement at the November 2016 OPEC conference. The agreement (which exempted disruption-ridden members Libya and Nigeria) covered the first half of 2017 – alongside promised reductions from Russia and ten other non-members, offset by expected increases in the US shale sector, Libya, Nigeria, spare capacity, and surging late-2016 OPEC production before the cuts took effect. Indonesia announced another "temporary suspension" of its OPEC membership, rather than accepting the organization's requested 5 percent production cut. Prices fluctuated around US$50/bbl, and OPEC in May 2017 decided to extend the new quotas through March 2018, with the world waiting to see if and how the oil inventory glut might be fully siphoned-off by then.[16][125][126][127][128][129][3] Longtime oil analyst Daniel Yergin "described the relationship between OPEC and shale as 'mutual coexistence', with both sides learning to live with prices that are lower than they would like."[130]
In December 2017, Russia and OPEC agreed to extend the production cut of 1.8million barrels/day until the end of 2018.[131]
Varied forms of a NOPEC bill have been introduced some 16 times since 1999, only to be vehemently resisted by the oil industry.
Oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms. As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive.
High oil prices in the 1970s propped up the regime so well, that had it not been for Soviet oil sales, it's quite possible the regime would have collapsed a decade earlier.
Libya has asked oil companies to slash production by 270,000 barrels per day. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. told customers in letters dated Dec. 25 that it was cutting ... 10 to 15 percent of all types of ADNOC crude in February. Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa said the South American nation would suspend crude production by Italy's Agip and reduce quotas for other companies to comply with new OPEC cuts.
Iraq, a founding member of OPEC, has not had a production quota since 1998, when it was pegged at 1.3 million bpd to allow Saddam Hussein's regime to sell oil for food during U.N. sanctions imposed in 1990... Despite the success of the 2009 auctions, problems remain – mounting violence in the run-up to March 7 parliamentary elections, uncertainty over their outcome, and, probably more importantly, the absence of a long-delayed oil law that will define revenue-sharing and regulation of the industry.
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